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Bitcoin traded near $82,795 on Monday, up 1.13% over 24 hours, as warnings of a “Black Monday” sell-off on the 39th anniversary of the 1987 crash failed to produce one. Ambcrypto, citing a 0.8% intraday gain, described the price action as a sign Bitcoin could be setting up a November rally like the one that followed the 2024 US presidential election, when BTC rose more than 30%.
Key facts
- Crypto.news reported Bitcoin near $82,795 at press time, up 1.13% over 24 hours and down 1.37% over seven days, with roughly $25.4 billion in daily volume and a market capitalization near $1.66 trillion.
- Santiment recorded 176 mentions of “Black Monday” on October 18, against fewer than two a day on average over the prior 60 days, with 82 mentions in the busiest six-hour window.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost approximately $228.6 million in the week ending October 16, including about $165 million from BlackRock’s IBIT and $60 million from Fidelity’s FBTC, according to Crypto.news.
- Ambcrypto reported Bitcoin dominance was pushing toward 60.8%, with a break above 61% marking its first move past that level since early May.
- A wallet dormant since September 2013 moved about 411.45 BTC worth roughly $34.1 million on October 18, per Arkham Intelligence data cited by Crypto.news.
A social media panic that did not reach the order book
Discussion of a crash spread faster than any actual selling. Ambcrypto reported the Black Monday narrative built on fears of an AI bubble and a possible US stock market decline, with the October 19 anniversary of 1987, when the Dow Jones fell 22.6% in a day, adding to the alarm.
Also read: Hayes: AI bubble burst and bailout could lift bitcoin
Santiment’s figures, cited by Crypto.news, show how one-sided the chatter became: 82 mentions in the six hours from 18:00 to 24:00 UTC on October 18, as US index futures reopened. General references to a market crash reached 105 mentions, which the firm called unusually high for a Sunday but within the range of the previous 90 days. Santiment noted that mentions measure discussion, not the chance of a decline.
Ambcrypto reported that Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index recovered by more than 11% in 24 hours and stayed in the greed zone.
Also read: Bitcoin Drops 4% as Analysts Split on Capitulation Risk
ETF demand has not kept pace with the price
The quieter institutional picture is less encouraging. Crypto.news reported that the $228.6 million in outflows for October 12 to 16 followed roughly $679 million in the prior week, the second straight negative week. The losses were concentrated in certain sessions, including Wednesday, October 14, when Bitcoin funds lost about $261 million; Tuesday’s $176 million inflow did not offset the rest.
Crypto.news also reported Ethereum ETFs saw about $320.1 million in withdrawals over the same period, and combined outflows across five tracked crypto ETF categories reached $610.7 million. The week included better macro news: China’s economy grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, and oil prices eased.
The two reports emphasize different signals. Ambcrypto focuses on dominance and sentiment as the bullish case; Crypto.news stresses that analysts see recovery as conditional on reclaiming higher levels.
Price levels analysts are watching
Analyst Ali Martinez identified $81,000 as the lower boundary of a rising channel on Bitcoin’s daily chart, suggesting that continued buying there could support a move toward $84,000 and then $86,500, with a sustained break below opening a path toward $76,000, according to Crypto.news. Analyst Ted said a weekly close above $82,000 came despite the worst week for the Nasdaq in 18 months, oil above $100 and the VIX above 22, but that reclaiming $84,500 is needed to show stronger momentum.
Crypto.news also cited Michaël van de Poppe, who in an October 17 post discussed a possible $1 million Bitcoin in this cycle alongside a later major correction, and a long-term projection near $197,000 by 2030. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has separately argued Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million. None of this is financial advice, and crypto markets remain volatile and uncertain.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s refusal to break down during a widely anticipated panic is a signal about who is holding: capital appears to be staying in BTC as a macro hedge rather than rotating into altcoins, which is what usually happens when traders get nervous. That matters for anyone judging whether the ETF outflows reflect lost institutional interest or routine rebalancing. Six weeks from now, the midterm elections and leverage levels will show which reading was right.
What to watch
Traders will watch whether BTC dominance clears 61%, and whether Bitcoin holds $81,000 or reclaims $84,500. The US midterm elections in early November, noted by Ambcrypto, are the next scheduled macro event with the potential to move risky assets.
Reported by ambcrypto.com.
Sources: AMBCrypto, Crypto.news