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Bitcoin was trading only narrowly above its 200-day moving average of $73,193, and the market’s weakest structural point lies just below, AMBCrypto reported, citing analyst Axel Adler Jr. and Glassnode data. Adler identified the $64,000-$74,000 range as a “thinly traded pocket” created in August, when prices moved through it quickly enough to leave little trading history behind. Such zones tend to cut both ways: they resist price poorly in a rally and support it poorly in a decline.
Key facts
- Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $1.043 billion across the past three trading days.
- Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average stood at $73,193 at the time of the report.
- The net taker buy-sell imbalance in futures was -13,142 BTC on November 9, down from -75,000 on November 5.
- The Coinbase Premium was -0.135%, meaning Bitcoin traded cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance.
- Equities volume on Hyperliquid overtook Bitcoin volume again, Glassnode said in a post on X.
Why demand signals have weakened
The volume crossover on Hyperliquid was the first sign of trouble. The last time stock trading on the platform outran Bitcoin volume was in August, just before a rally from $63,000 to $87,000, so a repeat looked plausible. The ETF flows point the other way. More than $1 billion left spot Bitcoin funds over three sessions, and the report describes sentiment as not yet supporting a recovery.
Also read: Bitcoin Fades Below $82K After $83K Rally Stalls
The Coinbase Premium supports that read. It has been negative since the August rally began, and the discount widened toward the end of October as selling pressure built. A negative reading means U.S. buyers are paying less than offshore traders, which the report treats as a sign of soft American demand.
Cooling, not capitulation
Glassnode’s supply data adds nuance. The ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply sat above its upper band and was rising week on week, meaning short-term holders control a larger share of coins. Those holdings tend to carry small profits and to be sold first when stress hits, so the market is more sensitive to short-term price swings.
The share of supply in profit was falling but had not broken below its lower band. The report reads that combination as a cooling phase rather than a capitulation, with fewer holders sitting on gains large enough to tempt them to sell.
Futures positioning tells a similar story of pressure easing at the margin: the taker buy-sell imbalance shrank sharply between November 5 and November 9, though it stayed negative. The broader regime has moved away from the bullish signals of a few weeks earlier.
Why it matters
The setup matters most for traders holding long positions near the moving average. If Bitcoin slips into the $64,000-$74,000 zone, the same lack of trading history that let August’s rally accelerate could let a decline run further before buyers regroup. That makes the 200-day average a line worth watching rather than a floor. For longer-term holders, the supply metrics suggest profit-taking pressure is easing even as spot demand thins.
What to watch
Daily spot ETF flow figures will show whether the $1.043 billion exit was a short burst or the start of a longer withdrawal. The net taker buy-sell imbalance and the Coinbase Premium will indicate whether the selling pressure that peaked in late October is fading. This is not financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and unpredictable.
Reported by AMBCrypto.
Source: AMBCrypto