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Bitcoin’s recovery faces a selling hurdle near $85,000, where long-term holders who bought between $85,000 and $118,000 hold roughly 4 million coins, according to Glassnode analysis reported by Cointelegraph. In its weekly onchain report, the analytics firm put the key cost-basis band at $84,000 to $85,000, a range BTC has respected as both support and resistance over the past 11 months.
Key facts
- About 4.3% of the total Bitcoin supply, or 864,520 BTC, last moved onchain at prices between $84,000 and $85,000, mostly on Nov. 22, 2025 — activity Glassnode links largely to one large holder shifting funds between wallets.
- Long-term holders, defined as entities holding for at least 155 days without selling, own around 4 million coins with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000, accumulated mostly in 2025.
- Bitcoin has recorded only five daily closes above the $84,000-$85,000 band, never more than three in a row, with upside momentum fading near the same level in May, September and October.
- Binance order book data showed about $42 million in bids between $78,000 and $79,000, up from $24 million in mid-October, while bids at $80,000 shrank to $3.4 million, Cryptobriefing reported.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in just $67 million over the two weeks covered by Glassnode’s report, after a $653 million inflow on October 19 was largely reversed by withdrawals, including $540 million on October 22, per Cryptobriefing.
The two reports describe the same level but cite slightly different intraday highs. Cointelegraph put BTC’s peak at $87,400 where momentum faded, while Cryptobriefing cited a brief climb to $87,100 in September. Cointelegraph said Glassnode called $85,000 the lower bound of the cost-basis zone; Cryptobriefing described it as resistance where holders could exit at break-even.
Also read: Bitcoin capitulation ‘twice as weak’ as spot liquidity turns supportive, Glassnode reports
Two cohorts, two price bands
Below the market, Glassnode’s picture is more constructive. Most short-term holders bought under the current price, with the biggest supply cluster around $77,000 and a second near $64,000. The firm’s True Market Mean, an average acquisition price for economically active supply, sits at roughly $77,900; a daily close below it would shift focus to the short-term holder cost basis near $75,800.
Selling pressure has also thinned. Daily net realized losses reached about $630 million at Bitcoin’s August low but peaked at only $27 million during the October 24 selloff, according to Cryptobriefing. Bitcoin has also slipped under the estimated $81,500 average cost basis of US spot ETF holdings.
Also read: Bitcoin Holds $82,500 Support as 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.58%
Quiet tape into the Fed
Trading has slowed: ETF volume averaged about $1.3 billion a day since May and fell to roughly $700 million on October 23, one of the year’s quietest sessions. One-month realized volatility dropped to about 25%, a level last seen in summer 2023, and Glassnode said Bitcoin has seen lower volatility on only about 5% of trading days since 2015. The compression built ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision.
Why it matters
The $85,000 band is the clearest test of whether buyers can absorb supply from holders sitting on losses. Reclaiming it would flip an 11-month ceiling into support; failing again would leave the $77,000 to $79,000 area as the line buyers are positioned to defend. The data also shows ETF demand adding little fresh pressure at current prices, so spot flows rather than onchain accumulation look likely to set the direction.
What to watch
Glassnode said a string of daily closes above $85,000 is needed to confirm the zone as support, and a break above $87,500 backed by stronger ETF inflows would signal buyers are soaking up overhead supply. The Fed’s October 28 decision, made just before the report circulated, was the next scheduled catalyst the analysis flagged.
This is not financial advice; cryptocurrency markets are volatile and uncertain, and price levels described here may not hold.
Reported by cointelegraph.com.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Cryptobriefing