Bitcoin traded near $84,000 on Tuesday, up 0.9% over 24 hours but down 2% on the week, as pressure from the bond market held the largest cryptocurrency inside a range it has kept for a fortnight, according to Decrypt. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.274% on Monday, its highest since June 2007, while the 30-year reached 5.583%, a level last seen in 2002.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, told Decrypt that the rise in crude prices was capping non-yielding assets and that Bitcoin’s rally had taken a pause. He described the price action as consolidation within a short-term uptrend.
Also read: Bitcoin Holds $82,500 Support as 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.58%
Key facts
- Bitcoin changed hands at about $84,000, with a 24-hour high of $84,442 and a low of $82,721, per CoinGecko data cited by Decrypt.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight straight sessions of inflows totaling roughly $3 billion; Monday alone brought a net $31.07 million, with $54.84 million into BlackRock’s IBIT and $10.32 million into Grayscale’s mini trust.
- The funds now hold $107.82 billion, equal to 6.42% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
- Futures markets put the odds of an October Fed rate increase at 70.3%, up from 55.4% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
- Strategy disclosed buying 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, lifting its holdings to 847,666 BTC.
Yields, oil and a Fed that just hiked
Brent crude moved back above $100 a barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted the dollar, Decrypt reported. The benchmark later fell below $104, down about 1.7% on the day after topping $108, as US and Iranian officials continued indirect contacts through Qatar and Saudi Arabia restored roughly half the flows through its East-West pipeline. Gold slipped to a seven-week low.
Thahbib Rahman, a research analyst at Block Scholes, noted to Decrypt that Bitcoin had held between $82,000 and $84,000 for a week and a half despite the macro backdrop and the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act, attributing that resilience to institutional demand. Options traders, he said, are hedging their optimism: the 25-delta put-call skew for seven to 30-day tenors sits close to neutral.
Also read: BlackRock's IBIT Buys 1.97K BTC as ETF Inflows Hit Six Sessions
Aave breaks its September ceiling
Not everything sat still. Ambcrypto reported that Aave’s AAVE token climbed more than 17% on September 29, from around $149 to above $175, clearing September highs clustered near $155 and trading above its major price averages. The token had been under $90 in mid-August before crossing $120, $140 and $150. On September 28, a routine risk proposal suggested raising the USDe borrowing rate from 6.3% to 6.6%, though Ambcrypto said there was no clear sign that adjustment caused the move.
The two reports frame the same macro backdrop differently. Decrypt emphasizes the cap that oil and high yields place on Bitcoin, while Ambcrypto focuses on Aave pushing through a level that had rejected earlier rallies even with 10-year Treasury yields above 5%. Aave’s pause point is the $150-$155 band; Bitcoin’s is the top of its fortnight-long range. Each outlet treats its asset’s move as the exception rather than the rule.
Why it matters
When government debt pays more than 5%, capital has a cheaper alternative to lending on-chain, which raises the bar for DeFi protocols and for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The ETF flow streak matters because it shows institutional buyers absorbing supply while the macro picture turns against risk. Strategy’s disclosed purchase, which took its holdings past the 847,363 BTC it held in June to a new record, reinforces that pattern. This is not financial advice, and markets of this kind are volatile and uncertain.
What to watch
August core PCE lands on Wednesday alongside the third estimate of second-quarter GDP; the measure ran at 3.3% year-on-year in July, and the Fed lifted its 2026 projection for it to 3.4% this month. Friday’s September jobs report is forecast to show payroll growth of about 90,000, down from August’s 162,000, with unemployment at 4.1%, though Barclays chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni puts September closer to 50,000. The Fed meets on October 27 and 28, three weeks after its first rate rise since 2023.
Reported by decrypt.co.
Sources: Decrypt, Ambcrypto
