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Bitwise Asset Management on October 28 raised its 2036 Bitcoin base-case price target to about $1.6 million, up from $1.3 million a year earlier, according to Cointribune. Bitcoinmagazine reported the figure more precisely as $1,599,766 in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.
The forecast, from a starting price of $83,557 as of September 30, 2026, implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over ten years. Cointribune noted the previous target was set for 2035 with a 28.3% CAGR, a figure CryptoBriefing also gave.
Also read: Citi Lifts 12-Month Bitcoin Target to $113K From $82K
Key facts
- Bitwise’s central case assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of a global value reserve market it sizes at $110 trillion, a share worth about $27.5 trillion, per Cointribune.
- Institutions controlling about $147 trillion could allocate 1% to 5% of portfolios, implying $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion of buying, according to Bitcoinmagazine.
- The network issues roughly $14 billion of new coins annually, Bitcoinmagazine reported, and 20.1 million BTC, or 95.7% of the 21 million cap, is already in circulation, per Cointribune.
- Bitwise models average volatility of 27.8% through 2036, below the 32.9% in its prior report, Cointribune reported.
- The bear case is $130,686 and the bull case $3.67 million, both outlined in the reports.
The forecast leans on gold’s market, not just institutions
Bitwise’s model does not discount profits or cash flows, since Bitcoin generates none. Instead it estimates future market sizes and the share Bitcoin might take. The value reserve component alone would supply nearly 82% of the valuation needed for the $1.6 million target, Cointribune reported, with Bitcoin’s current share of that market estimated at just over 5%.
At 1%, institutional allocation contributes roughly $3 trillion by 2036, less than 10% of the projected valuation. The 5% figure belongs to the bull case. CryptoBriefing described the store-of-value market as Bitcoin and gold combined and said the model hinges on Bitcoin taking a quarter of it.
Also read: Standard Chartered Signs Definitive Deal to Buy Zodia Custody
Volatility, drawdowns and open risks
Bitcoin fell 53.4% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 to a June 30, 2026 low of $58,717, Bitcoinmagazine reported. Bitwise called that the shallowest drawdown in the asset’s history, against prior declines of 77%, 84% and 86%. Cointribune put the record above $126,000 in October 2025 and the low below $59,000 in June 2026.
Bitwise expects average volatility of 27.8% through 2036, and Bitcoinmagazine said the firm expects the four-year cycle to weaken as the investor base broadens. Not everyone agrees on the cycle. Bitcoinmagazine cited VanEck’s halving-pattern view, Fidelity’s mention of a possible floor around November 2026, NYDIG’s $38,000 to $39,000 cycle-low range, and Cathie Wood’s argument that the downturn is nearly over.
Bitcoinmagazine also said U.S. spot bitcoin ETPs hold about $108 billion and that a Federal Reserve capital proposal could ease bank custody rules if adopted. Cointribune reported that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 in September 2026, while CryptoBriefing gave a correlation with U.S. stocks of 0.43.
Bitwise flagged regulatory setbacks, quantum computing and mathematical advances accelerated by AI as threats. Bitcoinmagazine traced the Clarity Act’s failure in Congress to Democratic concerns about ethics provisions. Cointribune reported that Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, is more optimistic than a year ago, citing regulatory progress, demand for rare assets and a shallower correction.
Why it matters
The upgrade gives institutional allocators a ready-made argument for a small Bitcoin position, and CryptoBriefing noted Bitwise is an asset manager with crypto products, so it has an interest in Bitcoin’s long-term success. The forecast is a bet on adoption rather than a guaranteed path, and the gap between the base and bear cases shows how sensitive the model is to assumptions. The 1% to 5% allocation range is framed to be digestible for professional portfolios.
What to watch
Whether the Federal Reserve’s bank capital proposal is adopted, how gold behaves given the record 0.58 correlation, and any regulatory movement after the Clarity Act’s failure are the variables most likely to shift the model. Bitcoinmagazine put Bitcoin’s price near $80,500 at the time of its report.
This is not financial advice; cryptocurrency markets are volatile and uncertain, and price forecasts should not be treated as guaranteed outcomes.
Reported by cointribune.com.
Sources: Cointribune, Bitcoinmagazine, Cryptobriefing