In this article5 sections
Galaxy Research concluded that bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the asset now looks well placed to retake $125,000, according to News.bitcoin. The report was published Oct. 26 after being sent to clients Oct. 22, and bitcoin traded near $80,000 when it was written.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at the digital asset financial services company, framed the call around fading selling pressure and steady demand. News.bitcoin quoted Thorn saying bitcoin has “proven its ability to run to at least $125K” and that there is no reason it cannot retake that level.
Also read: Bitcoin's 43% Q3 gain faces 5% Treasury yield hurdle
Key facts
- Bitcoin traded at $80,762.07 on Bitstamp when News.bitcoin wrote its Oct. 27 article, up 1.09% over 24 hours.
- Bitcoin had logged five consecutive weekly closes above its 50-week moving average through Oct. 18, after 44 weeks below it.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC after the June low, while nine trading firms cut ETF exposure by 68,000 BTC.
- Monthly movement of coins dormant for at least five years fell to 34,000 BTC so far in 2026 from 67,000 BTC in 2024.
- Galaxy cited $40.44 trillion in federal debt and a $1.99 trillion annual deficit as support for bitcoin’s issuance-limited case.
Where the two reports differ
Cryptobriefing dated the bottom more precisely, reporting that Galaxy put the low at approximately $76,540 on June 30, 2026. It also reported that bitcoin was about 35% below its October 2025 high of roughly $126,000. News.bitcoin did not give a high figure or a low date in the same terms but cited a 53% maximum drawdown.
The two accounts also describe selling pressure differently. Cryptobriefing reported that nine major hedge funds reduced futures and ETF exposure by more than half since the October 2025 peak, and that asset managers’ net long positions in CME bitcoin futures fell 57% since then. News.bitcoin described the nine firms as cutting ETF holdings by 68,000 BTC while other reporting institutions added 20,000 BTC between September 2025 and June 2026.
Also read: CryptoQuant: Dormant Bitcoin Coins Signal Early Bull Rally
Cryptobriefing added a cycle detail absent from News.bitcoin: the report said the day 916 window after the halving passed without a repeat of lows seen in earlier cycles. It also noted the 200-week moving average held as support, with the worst weekly close only 4.7% below it.
Onchain signals and the debt argument
Galaxy pointed to a shallower decline than past bear markets and to bitcoin holding above the network’s aggregate onchain cost basis. Short-term holders sat about 9% above their average acquisition cost without much profit-taking, News.bitcoin reported. In July, Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju said ETF and corporate buyers were absorbing sales by older holders.
Thorn’s case also leaned on government borrowing and bitcoin’s capped supply of roughly 21 million coins. He cited Morgan Stanley’s expected $570 billion in AI-related debt issuance during 2026. Investor attention, meanwhile, had gone to stablecoins and tokenization; stablecoin supply grew 129% since early 2024 to $304 billion, which Thorn read as capital staying inside crypto.
Why it matters
The call matters most to holders weighing whether the worst of the drawdown has passed. A research house declaring an end to a bear market can shift how institutions size positions and how ETF flows are read. The thin side of the argument is visible in the CME data Cryptobriefing reported: fewer sellers, but also fewer large buyers positioned for a rally.
What to watch
Galaxy’s own invalidation triggers are the clearest markers. News.bitcoin listed a weekly close below the 50-week average, then valued at $76,540, without recovery within a month. It also named ETF holdings falling below 1.22 million BTC, credible timing for a quantum computer able to break bitcoin’s cryptography, or U.S. fiscal consolidation.
This is not financial advice. Bitcoin and other digital assets are volatile, and price targets can fail to materialize.
Reported by news.bitcoin.com.
Sources: Bitcoin.com News, Cryptobriefing