Standard Chartered initiated research coverage of Ethena’s ENA token on September 30, 2026, setting a year-end 2028 price target of $2, according to Cointelegraph. That is roughly seven times the $0.28 price cited in the bank’s report. The bank also set interim targets of $0.42 for the end of 2026 and $1.10 for the end of 2027, as reported by Thenewscrypto.
The report frames Ethena’s growth around USDe, the protocol’s synthetic dollar. Standard Chartered expects USDe supply to reach about $40 billion by the end of 2028, an increase of roughly eightfold from the $4.98 billion in USDe issued at the time of the report, according to Thenewscrypto. The bank added that USDe should slightly outpace overall growth in the stablecoin market over that period.
Key facts
- Standard Chartered initiated coverage of ENA with a year-end 2028 target of $2, plus targets of $0.42 for end-2026 and $1.10 for end-2027 (Thenewscrypto).
- USDe supply is forecast to reach about $40 billion by the end of 2028, roughly eight times the $4.98 billion outstanding at the time of the report (Thenewscrypto).
- Ethena’s governance approved a fee switch in early September that directs 95% of net revenue from its business lines toward ENA buybacks once USDe hits specified supply milestones.
- Roughly 1.4 billion ENA tokens are expected to unlock on October 5 (Thenewscrypto).
- ENA was trading at about $0.27 on Wednesday, up roughly 28% over the past week and 77% over the past month, with a market capitalization of about $2.65 billion, per CoinGecko data cited by Cointelegraph.
The buyback math behind the valuation
Standard Chartered’s case rests heavily on how Ethena links USDe growth to token repurchases. The fee switch approved by governance sets out tiered thresholds, starting at $7.5 billion in USDe supply, where 5% of eligible net revenue goes to buybacks. That rises to 10% at $10 billion, 15% at $15 billion and 20% at $20 billion, according to Thenewscrypto. Cointelegraph reported that at $25 billion in USDe supply, Ethena estimates the mechanism could generate $375 million in annual ENA buybacks, assuming a 6% gross protocol yield and a 25% net revenue take rate.
If USDe reaches the $40 billion forecast and ENA’s price stays where it is, Standard Chartered estimates annual buybacks could equal roughly 23% of ENA’s circulating market capitalization. The bank called that rate likely unsustainable and said it expects ENA’s price to rise until buybacks settle at a lower share of market value. It pointed to Uniswap as a comparison, noting that UNI’s annualized buyback rate has stabilized around 3% to 4% as its token price increased.
Also read: Ethena Foundation proposes revenue-funded ENA buybacks as token jumps 10%
Yield beyond the crypto basis trade
Ethena originally generated USDe yield mainly through the crypto basis trade, holding spot assets while shorting perpetual futures. Standard Chartered said declining returns from that trade pushed the protocol into DeFi and institutional lending, real-world assets and basis trades tied to equities and commodities. Those sources currently produce a blended yield of 5.2%, according to Cointelegraph, giving USDe room to scale.
Thenewscrypto reported the protocol’s newest equity strategy uses Binance bStocks as tokenized spot exposure with stock perpetuals as the hedge, adding that open interest in Binance’s equity perpetuals had surpassed $2.9 billion while the reported six-month annualized basis return averaged 3.56%.
The two outlets differ on the size of the tokenized-asset market Standard Chartered is forecasting. Cointelegraph reported the bank sees it growing from about $350 billion today to $4 trillion by the end of 2028, while Thenewscrypto reported real-world assets deployed on blockchains expanding from around $40 billion to $2 trillion over the same period. Cryptobriefing also covered the initiation, noting that Ethena’s USDe reached a $10 billion market capitalization within nine months of launch — faster than any other stablecoin, according to the bank — and that Ethena is currently the fourth-largest stablecoin issuer and the second-largest issuer of yield-bearing stablecoins. Cryptobriefing put ENA at about $0.26 at press time, a roughly 669% gap to the target.
Why it matters
Ethena sits at the intersection of two trends Standard Chartered is betting on: demand for stablecoins that pay yield, and the migration of traditional assets onto blockchains. A $2 target from a major bank gives institutional readers a named valuation anchor for a token that has mostly been covered as a DeFi-native product. The forecast also puts ENA ahead of Standard Chartered’s own projections for Bitcoin at $300,000 and Ether at $18,000 through 2028, implying the bank expects ENA to outperform both. Traders holding ENA now face a concrete test in the form of the October 5 unlock, which adds supply just as the bank’s bullish case is being circulated.
What to watch
The October 5 unlock of roughly 1.4 billion ENA tokens is the nearest scheduled event that could pressure the price. Beyond that, USDe supply growth toward the first buyback threshold of $7.5 billion — and whether adoption of yield-bearing stablecoins and real-world assets accelerates as the bank assumes — will determine if the forecast holds. Cryptobriefing noted the bank flagged slower adoption in both areas as risks to its outlook.
Standard Chartered’s ENA target and USDe supply forecast are projections, not guarantees. This article is not financial advice, and cryptocurrency markets are volatile and uncertain.
Reported by cointelegraph.com.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Thenewscrypto, Cryptobriefing
