Bitcoin has entered the early stages of a new bull market after a 24% rally pushed key onchain and demand indicators into bullish territory, according to analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm’s Bull Score jumped to 80 from 30 over the past week, hitting its highest level since October 2025, with eight of the index’s 10 underlying indicators now flashing bullish.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $80,000 during the rally, but CryptoQuant said a weekly close above its 365-day moving average — currently around $83,000 — is needed to confirm the shift to a new bull market. The move has been supported by accelerating spot demand, with spot and futures demand growing together for the first time since early October 2025.
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Key resistance levels and market context
LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next important level for Bitcoin. “A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high,” Kruger told Cointelegraph.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $79,000, according to CoinGecko data. The rally follows a period of consolidation and comes amid renewed institutional interest, with Bitcoin ETFs adding $338 million in a single day as part of a six-day inflow streak totaling $2.26 billion.
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Profit-taking and whale activity signal near-term turbulence
Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant warned that the rally may be overheated in the short term. Traders’ unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, their highest since June 2025. The firm noted that Bitcoin fell about 30% after the metric reached 19% in early May, when BTC was trading near $82,000.
Short-term holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, including a record $614 million on Aug. 20, as Bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000. Bitcoin exchange inflows also climbed to roughly 53,000 BTC, their highest since June, signaling that more coins are moving onto trading platforms where they could be sold.
What this means for investors
The combination of rising profit-taking and increased exchange inflows suggests that while the broader trend may be turning bullish, the path forward could include volatility. A weekly close above the 365-day moving average would provide stronger confirmation, but until then, traders should be prepared for possible pullbacks.
The recent ETF inflows and growing demand indicate that institutional interest remains sturdy, which could provide a floor under prices. However, the market’s reaction to the $83,000 level will likely determine whether Bitcoin can sustain its momentum or faces another period of consolidation.
Conclusion
CryptoQuant’s data points to a meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s market structure, with the Bull Score at its highest since October 2025 and demand indicators turning positive. However, the $83,000 weekly close remains the key confirmation level. As profit-taking and exchange inflows rise, near-term volatility is likely, and traders should watch for a clear break above resistance to confirm the new bull market phase.
FAQs
Q1: What is CryptoQuant’s Bull Score?
The Bull Score is an index that aggregates 10 key onchain and market indicators to gauge Bitcoin’s market cycle. A score above 60 typically indicates bullish conditions, while a score below 40 suggests bearish or uncertain conditions.
Q2: Why is the $83,000 level so important?
The $83,000 level corresponds to Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average. A weekly close above this level would confirm that the market has shifted from a bearish or neutral phase to a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant’s methodology.
Q3: What risks remain despite the bullish signals?
CryptoQuant notes that trader profit margins are elevated, and whales have been taking profits. Exchange inflows have also risen, which could lead to increased selling pressure in the near term. These factors could cause short-term pullbacks even if the longer-term trend is turning bullish.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
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