Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told clients on Friday that he believes Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have already hit their cycle lows. In a note shared with clients, Kendrick identified three specific indicators he is watching for confirmation that the bottom is behind the market.
Three signs of a Bitcoin bottom
Kendrick’s assessment centers on three developments: Strategy’s upcoming disclosure of its latest Bitcoin purchases, a return of positive flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and continued weakness in oil prices. He wrote that Bitcoin likely bottomed near $59,000, a 53% decline from its cycle high of $126,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $63,704, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Also read: Anthropic's Mythos AI finds no further 'serious' bugs in Zcash, says founder Zooko Wilcox
The first of these signals may have already materialized. On Sunday, Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted his characteristic teaser on X, writing "Still adding dots" alongside the dot chart he uses to hint at upcoming Bitcoin acquisitions. The post had accumulated more than half a million views by mid-afternoon Eastern Time.
ETF inflows and oil prices provide additional context
Kendrick also pointed to Friday’s data showing US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $85.84 million, with five funds seeing new money while eight others remained flat. This marks a reversal from recent weeks of mixed or negative flows.
Also read: Saylor defends Strategy's Bitcoin sale as essential for digital credit business
Crude oil futures also fell for a second consecutive day on Friday, a trend Kendrick views as supportive for risk assets including crypto. Lower energy prices can ease inflationary pressures and reduce the likelihood of aggressive central bank tightening, which historically benefits speculative assets.
Kendrick closed his note with a seasonal analogy: "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring."
Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sale adds nuance
The bullish outlook comes just weeks after Strategy disclosed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, offloading 32 BTC in early June. The move initially puzzled some investors given Saylor’s longstanding "never sell your Bitcoin" mantra. However, Saylor defended the sale during an appearance at BTC Prague, telling Cointelegraph that the ability to sell Bitcoin is essential for the company’s "digital credit" business model.
"If the company’s policy is that we won’t sell the Bitcoin, then the credit won’t have value and the equity won’t have value," Saylor said. He explained that Bitcoin treasury companies must retain the flexibility to sell holdings when necessary to support dividend-paying securities and other Bitcoin-backed credit products.
Why this matters for Bitcoin investors
Kendrick’s analysis carries weight given Standard Chartered’s institutional footprint and his track record on crypto price calls. If his assessment proves correct, the recent sell-off from all-time highs may represent a buying opportunity rather than the start of a prolonged bear market. However, the analyst himself noted that confirmation from the three indicators is still pending, and investors should treat the outlook as probabilistic rather than certain.
The coming days will be telling. Strategy typically discloses its Bitcoin holdings and purchases in SEC filings or social media posts within days of Saylor’s teasers. Combined with sustained ETF inflows and continued weakness in oil, these data points could either validate or challenge Kendrick’s springtime thesis.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has made a clear call that Bitcoin’s cycle low is behind the market, backed by three observable indicators. While the thesis is not yet fully confirmed, early signals from Strategy’s teaser and Friday’s ETF inflows offer cautious support. Investors should monitor these developments closely in the days ahead.
FAQs
Q1: What are the three signs Standard Chartered is watching for a Bitcoin bottom?
The three indicators are: Strategy reporting it bought more Bitcoin last week, positive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and continued declines in crude oil prices.
Q2: What price did Standard Chartered identify as the Bitcoin cycle low?
Analyst Geoff Kendrick identified approximately $59,000 as the likely low for the current cycle, representing a 53% decline from the $126,000 high.
Q3: Why did Strategy sell some Bitcoin recently despite its "never sell" policy?
Founder Michael Saylor explained that the ability to sell Bitcoin is necessary to support the company’s digital credit products, including dividend-paying securities and Bitcoin-backed credit offerings.
Be the first to comment