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Roughly $707 billion of the capital invested in Bitcoin was held at a loss, against about $380 billion in profit, according to AMBCrypto. The outlet reported the figures on November 3, 2026, citing the analyst Darkfost, who tracks the daily average of capital sitting in profit or loss on Bitcoin spot positions.
Darkfost’s view, as reported, is that clearing that overhang is a matter of time rather than a single catalyst. Bitcoin would need to trade through a large block of positions bought at higher prices before most of that capital returns to profit, and the analyst expects several months for that to happen. Only then, in that framing, does a market expansion have room to build.
Also read: CryptoQuant: Dormant Bitcoin Coins Signal Early Bull Rally
Key facts
- About $707 billion of Bitcoin capital was at a loss, compared with roughly $380 billion in profit, per Darkfost’s figures.
- Bitcoin’s price fell to a low of $76,541 on Monday, November 2, 2026.
- The 30-day average of active addresses was 629,000, 43% below the December 2024 peak of 1.10 million, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.
- The 30-day average of daily on-chain transfer volume slipped 5.4% from December 2024, from 865,000 BTC to 819,000 BTC.
- Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin halted transfers after a security incident that drained $40 million, then resumed withdrawals.
Activity is down, but coins still move
The two on-chain readings cited in the report point in different directions. Address activity has contracted sharply: Adler compared the 43% decline from the December 2024 high with 2018, when active addresses fell 50%, from 1.10 million to 547,000, over about three months. The current contraction has stretched across almost two years.
Volume tells a milder story. Even with far fewer addresses in use, the average daily total of BTC moved on-chain was only slightly below the December 2024 level. AMBCrypto’s summary of the data is that the coins changing hands remain comparable to that period, even as the number of participants has shrunk.
Sentiment hit by exchange failures
The loss figures landed alongside security trouble at major venues. Mercado Bitcoin stopped transfers after a $40 million drain and has since restored withdrawals, with deposits unaffected throughout. That incident followed the Binance heist by a matter of days, and AMBCrypto described market sentiment as still highly pessimistic.
The $75,000 demand zone, which lines up with the short-term holder cost basis, has become the level swing traders and longer-term holders are watching after the drop to $76,541.
Why it matters
The ratio of capital in loss to capital in profit shapes how rallies behave. Holders who bought near recent highs tend to sell as price returns to their entry point, so each leg upward meets supply from investors trying to get even. That is why recovery from a deep drawdown often takes months of sideways trading rather than a sharp reversal. For long-term holders the practical effect is a market where upside is absorbed gradually, and for newer buyers it means the cost basis of the past year’s cohort now functions as resistance.
What to watch
The $75,000 demand zone is the immediate line to monitor; a sustained break below it would push more positions into loss and lengthen the recovery timeline Darkfost described. The daily balance between capital in profit and capital in loss is the metric that would show the overhang starting to clear. This article is not financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.
Reported by AMBCrypto.
Source: AMBCrypto