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Long-dormant Bitcoin is moving less, and onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reads that slowdown as an early sign of a new uptrend, according to Cointelegraph. The share of Bitcoin’s realized cap held by coins unmoved for 18 months or longer peaked at 26.98% on Sept. 16 — its highest since mid-November 2024 — and has since eased to 26.59%, a modest reversal that the firm says has historically come before strong rallies.
Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved onchain, so shifts in the mix show which holders are transacting. CryptoQuant tracked the change through UTXO age bands, the onchain equivalent of coin cohorts sorted by how long they have sat still.
Also read: Bitcoin enters 'initial phase' of new bull market, but $83K remains key: CryptoQuant
Key facts
- The 18-month-plus cohort’s share of realized cap fell from 26.98% on Sept. 16 to 26.59%, remaining broadly stable since mid-September.
- Coins last moved at least five years ago account for roughly 34,000 BTC in monthly onchain volume — half the 2024 figure.
- Only the 18-month-to-two-year holder group is currently in net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193.
- Galaxy Digital described the current downturn as the shallowest bear market on record, with a maximum drawdown from all-time highs of -53%.
- Five-year-plus coins moved 67,000 BTC a month in 2024 and 47,000 in 2025, totaling 1.11 million BTC since October 2024.
Why old-coin dormancy precedes rallies
CryptoQuant lays out a repeatable sequence: the proportion of network supply held for more than 18 months climbs, then begins to fall, and a strong advance follows. The firm’s blog post described the reversal now underway as small, meaning the signal has barely started to register.
In its reading, the shift is consistent with long-term investors choosing to keep exposure rather than realize gains, citing longer-term profitability as the motive. The contribution from these holders had been trending upward since November 2025, with profit-taking rising as BTC/USD slid further from its record high of $126,200. CryptoQuant called the market “bullish” but still early in the cycle, a point at which it sees room for both upside and duration.
Also read: Saylor Says Bitcoin Bull Run Is Early, Eyes $100K
Supply from five-year coins is thinning
Galaxy Digital’s report last week tied the cap at $126,200 to a supply glut from coins held five years or more. That overhang has been absorbed largely by spot ETFs and digital asset treasury companies, Galaxy said, and the flow of such coins has since slowed sharply: 67,000 BTC per month in 2024, 47,000 in 2025, and about 34,000 per month in 2026. Galaxy tallied 1.11 million BTC distributed from this cohort since October 2024, the largest old-coin distribution of any cycle.
The shallow -53% drawdown adds context. Bitcoin has slipped below the 18-month-to-two-year cohort’s $93,193 cost basis since its 2025 highs, yet older groups remain in aggregate profit — the first bear market in which price held above the 2-3-year cost basis, per CryptoQuant.
Why it matters
Long-term holders are the largest overhang on Bitcoin’s float, so when they stop selling, the supply available to buyers shrinks. That matters for traders watching ETF flows and for treasury companies still accumulating. The current setup differs from prior cycles in one respect: selling pressure from old coins has faded while price has stayed above deeper cost bases, a combination that changes how much overhead supply the market must absorb.
What to watch
The next test is whether the 18-month-plus share of realized cap keeps declining rather than flattening, and whether five-year coin flows stay near 34,000 BTC a month. CryptoQuant’s own read — that the signal has not fully begun — means the coming weeks of UTXO data will show if the reversal is real. This is not financial advice; crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.
Reported by cointelegraph.com.
Source: Cointelegraph