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Robinhood‘s crypto revenue climbed 20% to $120 million in the third quarter from $100 million in the second, but the stock still fell as the company missed Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line estimates. AMBCrypto reported that the gain was carried by prediction markets and Robinhood Chain rather than by crypto trading itself.
The revenue figures come from the fintech’s Q3 earnings report. Decrypt counted record quarterly revenue of $1.42 billion, and CoinCentral put it at $1.424 billion, both just under the roughly $1.43 billion analysts expected. Earnings per share also came in short: Decrypt reported $0.51 against $0.55 projected, while AMBCrypto cited adjusted EPS of $0.60 against an expected $0.64.
Also read: Bernstein: Robinhood prediction markets to hit $1.7B by 2028
Key facts
- Crypto revenue reached $120 million, up from $100 million in Q2 and above the $114 million analyst estimate cited by AMBCrypto, but down 55% from $268 million a year earlier, per Decrypt.
- Prediction markets, or event contracts, brought in $173 million, up 11% from $156 million in Q2, with Decrypt reporting a record 16.4 billion contracts traded.
- Robinhood Chain, the Ethereum layer-2 that went live on July 1, contributed $26 million, offsetting crypto trading revenue that cooled to $94 million from $100 million.
- Net income fell 14% year over year to $476 million, including a $67 million unrealized loss on Robinhood Ventures Fund I, according to Decrypt.
- HOOD fell 7.45% to $92.84 on Tuesday, AMBCrypto reported, citing the revenue and EPS miss.
The chain and the betting book carry the quarter
AMBCrypto reported that prediction markets supplied 12% of total revenue, crypto 8.4% and options, equities and other lines the remaining 79%. The quarter’s crypto increase depended on the new network: without Robinhood Chain, crypto transaction revenue would have fallen 6% from Q2, CoinCentral noted. Customers traded $50 billion in crypto during the quarter, down 38% year over year, split between $21 billion on the Robinhood app and $29 billion through Bitstamp.
The chain’s activity ran well ahead of its reported revenue. AMBCrypto cited $1.24 billion in total value locked as of late October and nearly $90 billion in decentralized exchange volume in Q3, already about $25 billion in Q4. CoinCentral described more than $80 billion in DEX volume and over $50 million in chain fees in the first quarter, and noted the company did not disclose how much of those fees it booked as revenue.
Also read: Robinhood adds $25M Bitcoin to its own balance sheet
How far the stock has fallen
The reports diverge on the share move. AMBCrypto said HOOD dropped 7.45% to $92.84 on Tuesday and sits 31% below its September peak of $126. Decrypt said shares closed Tuesday at about $94.61 and slipped after hours, down roughly 18% this year and about 37% below the 52-week high of $150.47. CoinCentral put the Tuesday close at $94.56 and said the stock fell about 5.5% after hours to $89.22, leaving it down roughly 22% year to date.
AMBCrypto noted that Wall Street analysts’ consensus price target is $130. Any upside implied by that figure is a projection by analysts, not a forecast of this publication; this is not financial advice, and equity and crypto markets are volatile and can move against such estimates.
Robinhood also narrowed its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, trimming the top of the prior range, Decrypt reported. Hours before the results, Robinhood announced a deal with Ripple to bring the RLUSD stablecoin to Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp.
Why it matters
Robinhood’s crypto line has shifted from a trading-fee business toward infrastructure and event contracts. A year ago crypto was about 21% of revenue, CoinCentral reported; it is now 8.4%, so the company’s quarterly growth depends more on options, equities and prediction markets than on coin volumes. For traders, the chain’s fee income and DEX activity tie Robinhood’s results to the same speculative flows that drive on-chain markets.
What to watch
Q4 results will show whether the chain’s fee revenue and prediction-market growth hold as crypto trading volumes stay soft, and whether the planned in-app RLUSD rollout proceeds later this year.
Reported by AMBCrypto.
Sources: AMBCrypto, Decrypt, CoinCentral