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Bernstein analysts forecast that Robinhood‘s prediction markets will generate $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, moving ahead of the $1.6 billion they project for the trading platform’s crypto business that year, according to Cointelegraph. The research note, shared with CoinPulseHQ on Monday, also left the firm’s $160 price target on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) unchanged.
The forecast landed a day before Robinhood’s third-quarter 2026 report and puts prediction markets alongside crypto as one of the platform’s main incremental earnings drivers.
Also read: SUI drops 10% weekly as Robinhood rewards and buybacks draw searches
Key facts
- Bernstein expects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to climb to $1.7 billion in 2028 from about $650 million this year.
- That would equal roughly 18% of the $9.4 billion in total revenue the analysts project for Robinhood in 2028.
- Bernstein raised its revenue estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028, pointing to higher equities and crypto revenue assumptions.
- The analysts expected Robinhood’s Q3 2026 revenue to rise 13% quarter-over-quarter to around $1.5 billion.
- HOOD traded near $93.60 in premarket activity on Monday, and the stock is down more than 29% over the past 12 months.
What the revenue math looks like
The analysts’ projection places event contracts close to parity with crypto by 2028. Crypto revenue is expected to reach $1.6 billion that year, meaning prediction markets would edge it out as the larger of the two lines. The 2028 total also implies that roughly one dollar in five of Robinhood’s revenue would come from a product that was a smaller contributor this year.
For the third quarter, Bernstein pointed to growing notional volumes in equities and options, higher event contract volumes and a recovery in crypto trading volume as the drivers behind the expected 13% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase to about $1.5 billion.
Also read: Robinhood adds $25M Bitcoin to its own balance sheet
Stock pressure against a steady target
Robinhood shares were set to open lower on Monday, with premarket trading taking the price down to $93.60, per Yahoo Finance. The stock has lost more than 29% over the past year, a decline that sits awkwardly beside Bernstein’s $160 target, which the firm did not adjust even as it lifted its revenue estimates.
The gap between the raised estimates and the flat target suggests the analysts are revising their top-line outlook rather than their valuation stance. The revenue changes were tied to higher equities and crypto assumptions rather than to any change in how the firm values the business.
Why it matters
Robinhood built its reputation as a retail trading venue whose earnings swung with crypto activity. If Bernstein’s numbers hold, prediction markets would give the company a second revenue stream of comparable size, reducing its dependence on digital asset trading cycles. The forecast also signals that event contracts, which have drawn growing retail interest, are becoming a material line item rather than an experiment for the brokerage. Investors weighing the stock now have to consider two volatile markets instead of one.
What to watch
Robinhood’s third-quarter 2026 report, due the day after the note was shared, will be the first test of Bernstein’s $1.5 billion quarterly revenue expectation and of whether event contract volumes are tracking the analysts’ assumptions. Any update on crypto trading activity in that release will also shape the 2028 comparison.
This is not financial advice. Price targets and revenue forecasts are estimates, and markets are volatile and uncertain.
Reported by cointelegraph.com.
Source: Cointelegraph