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Crypto-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket recorded $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume, the highest weekly total for the category, News.bitcoin reported on Oct. 24, 2026. Most of the money went into short-dated wagers on bitcoin and other crypto prices, a period when bitcoin traded between roughly $80,000 and $84,000.
That narrow range suits rapid entry and exit, and the platforms’ newest products are built for exactly that pace. Cryptobriefing attributed the record to a new crop of high-frequency contracts, led by Kalshi’s 15-minute up/down market on bitcoin, and noted that crypto now ranks second to sports on both platforms.
Also read: Kalshi posts record $9.4B June trading volume as World Cup drives prediction market surge
Key facts
- Combined weekly notional volume in crypto contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion.
- Kalshi’s crypto volume was about $8.17 billion from Sept. 1 to 28, of which roughly $7 billion, or 86%, came from 15-minute markets, per News.bitcoin.
- Polymarket’s U.S. platform did $91.76 million in its 15-minute bitcoin markets in the first full week, Sept. 23 to 29, with daily volume rising from $2.40 million to $27.71 million.
- Kalshi’s bitcoin contracts alone topped $2 billion in a single week during mid-October 2026, according to Cryptobriefing.
- Kalshi’s total contract volume peaked at $19.03 billion in the week of Oct. 5 to 11, across all categories, Cryptobriefing reported.
Fifteen-minute contracts take over
The short-duration format has reshaped the product mix at Kalshi. News.bitcoin reported that crypto’s share of the exchange’s total volume climbed from about 2.6% before the format launched to 14.5% in September. Polymarket’s U.S. arm moved faster on some measures: its 15-minute bitcoin markets drew $91.76 million in their first full week, and reported transactions rose from 63,650 to 739,034 over the same stretch.
The two reports differ on Polymarket’s debut figure. News.bitcoin put it at $91.76 million for Sept. 23 to 29, while Cryptobriefing cited approximately $92 million to $101 million for the first full week. Both describe the same launch period but do not give an identical range.
Also read: Mark Zuckerberg reportedly ordered Meta staff to build moneyless prediction market app 'Arena'
For many users, these contracts function as a simplified, capped-risk alternative to leveraged trading: a position can lose, but it cannot be liquidated.
Coinbase and Phantom widen the doors
Distribution is expanding alongside volume. Coinbase’s prediction market offering runs on Kalshi, and wallet maker Phantom began a staged U.S. rollout of in-wallet markets. Phantom’s U.S. contracts cost $0.02 per contract, split between Phantom and Kalshi, plus a small network fee. Trades are funded at Kalshi, and that balance does not appear inside the wallet itself.
Both reports tie the push to falling spot trading volumes, with exchanges seeking a product that keeps retail users engaged. Cryptobriefing framed it as platforms looking for engagement that conventional buy-and-sell trading no longer delivers at the same pace.
Longer-dated money stays cautious
Short-dated contracts express direction, not conviction, News.bitcoin noted. Longer horizons tell a different story: on the options platform Derive, the implied odds of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Christmas rose from 9.7% to 12% this week, even as spot bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on Thursday. Several analysts told News.bitcoin they do not expect bitcoin to break $100K by the end of 2026.
Why it matters
Prediction markets are becoming a genuine channel for crypto price exposure, not a niche sideline, and the dominant product is measured in minutes rather than years. That shifts how retail traders interact with bitcoin: a wager on the next quarter-hour rather than a position held through a cycle. It also gives exchanges a revenue line that does not depend on spot turnover, which both reports describe as declining.
What to watch
Legal risk is the clearest variable. News.bitcoin pointed to lawsuits against sports contracts in several U.S. states, which could make crypto exchanges more cautious about expanding into prediction markets. The Pentagon has also banned military personnel and employees from trading on nonpublic information on Polymarket and Kalshi after a $400,000 betting scandal. Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds recently discussed prediction markets with News.bitcoin, expressing both optimism and caution.
This article is not financial advice, and prediction market and crypto prices are volatile and uncertain.
Reported by news.bitcoin.com.
Sources: Bitcoin.com News, Cryptobriefing