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Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 with little support from the usual playbook, as US households reported both weak confidence and rising price expectations, Cointribune reported. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index held at 48 points in October, against 48.1 in September, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.7% from 4.6%.
The pairing matters because a slowing economy normally pushes investors toward bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, which has tended to help bitcoin and other risky assets. When inflation expectations rise at the same time, that mechanism stalls.
Also read: Bitcoin Steadies Near $82K as Warsh Avoids Rate-Hike Signal
Key facts
- Consumer confidence was 48 points in October, 10.4% below October 2025 and 15% below February, according to Cointribune.
- One-year expected inflation reached 4.7%, up from 4.6% in September and 3.4% in February; long-term expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%.
- A measure of current economic conditions fell 8.3% in a month, from 50.9 to 46.7 points, and buying conditions for durable goods dropped 18%.
- Bitcoin was near $80,000, with irregular ETF outflows and high sensitivity to US yields, per Cointribune.
- Separately, Coincentral reported that Nebius Group shares fell in Monday premarket trading after CEO Arkady Volozh discussed tighter AI financing, with Nebius short sellers holding $2.94 billion in unrealized October gains, per ORTEX data.
Consumers see high prices and costly credit
Survey director Joanne Hsu said purchasing power continues to dominate how households read the economy, with high prices and more expensive credit weighing on their outlook. Both inflation measures rose for a second consecutive month, and a University of Michigan study published October 23 found long-term expectations and the uncertainty around them above 2019 and 2024 levels.
These are perceptions, not a measure of observed inflation, but the Fed watches them because expectations can feed into behavior: households bring purchases forward, workers ask for higher pay and firms adjust prices. Hsu said deep entrenchment was still avoidable and that the effect of anticipated purchases had not been measured.
Also read: Bitcoin Slips Below $80,000 as Fed Meeting and ETF Outflows Weigh
The bad-news trade stops working
For bitcoin, the risk is not another rate increase but rates staying high for longer while growth slows. The Fed cannot cut quickly with inflation elevated, and it cannot tighten hard without deepening the slowdown. A 2023 International Monetary Fund study cited by Cointribune found monetary tightening reduced crypto demand much as it did equities.
The AI-infrastructure selloff described by Coincentral shows the same borrowing-cost pressure in another corner of the market. Coincentral reported that Nebius secured a $3.5 billion Citi credit facility on October 22, maturing after 364 days at SOFR plus 2.75 percentage points, and that Elon Musk warned more than 200 specialized cloud providers could fail or merge.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s price is now tied to a Fed that is caught between weak sentiment and sticky inflation expectations, so soft data no longer automatically reads as bullish. Traders positioned for easier policy may find the reverse: no new liquidity and a firmer dollar backdrop. The same dynamic is squeezing AI cloud stocks, where Coincentral reported about $6 billion in unrealized short gains across five companies in October.
What to watch
The PCE index is due October 29, the day after the Fed’s decision. A softer print would revive hopes of future easing; another inflation surprise would reinforce the scenario of a slower economy with persistently high rates. This is not financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.
Reported by cointribune.com.
Sources: Cointribune, Coincentral