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Ethereum’s price has held up better than futures positioning would suggest, and a leveraged trader appears to be counting on that. According to AMBCrypto, a trader claiming a perfect win rate opened a long on 20,277 ETH using 25x leverage, a position worth $45.3 million that was already $252,000 in profit at the time of reporting.
The same trader’s previous 10 trades were all profitable, producing $6.32 million in realized gains, AMBCrypto reported on November 6. The bet adds weight to Tom Lee’s argument that Ethereum is bottoming, though the on-chain and flow data the outlet cites point the other way.
Also read: BitMine buys back 2.04 million shares, adds 10,452 ETH in one week
Key facts
- Nearly $300 million in long positions were liquidated over the past 48 hours, yet ETH fell just over 1%.
- Earlier in October, almost $500 million in positions were liquidated when ETH broke below $2.5k support, triggering a 7% correction.
- About 1,036,882 ETH, worth more than $2.3 billion, is waiting in the Ethereum mainnet validator queue, down from 3,737,802 ETH six months earlier.
- Ethereum ETFs have recorded $270 million in net outflows in under a week since November began, after five consecutive weeks of outflows.
- October’s ETF outflows totaled $1.6 billion, a level November could exceed if the current pace holds.
Why the price held while futures sold off
The comparison AMBCrypto draws is between October and the past two days. October’s break below $2.5k forced a deeper correction because liquidation volume was larger. This time the liquidation total was smaller and the price response was muted, which the report reads as contained selling pressure rather than a signal of a turn.
That gap is what makes the whale trade notable. A trader with a claimed 100% win rate is positioning before any confirmed recovery in the data, and the report presents the bet as a possible lead indicator rather than proof that a floor has formed.
What the supply and flow data show
Staking demand has cooled. The validator queue has fallen to roughly a quarter of its level six months ago, which the report interprets as fewer holders willing to lock ETH for rewards. Institutional flows are also negative: five straight weeks of ETF outflows, with $270 million leaving in less than a week of November, put this month on pace to pass October’s $1.6 billion.
Liquidation levels add a third pressure point. A large cluster of long liquidations sits below $2,200 ETH, and AMBCrypto notes that a sweep of that liquidity could take the price under $2k before any reversal.
Why it matters
Leveraged longs are a two-way signal for holders. They show conviction, but they also create the fuel for the liquidation cascades the report describes, so a cluster below $2,200 makes a deeper move self-reinforcing if sentiment stays weak. For ETF investors, the outflow trend matters more than any single trade, since it reflects institutional positioning rather than one trader’s view. Tom Lee’s bottom thesis now depends on staking demand and ETF flows turning, not on one whale being right. This is not financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.
What to watch
Two data points will settle the debate in the near term: whether November ETF outflows pass October’s $1.6 billion, and whether the validator queue keeps shrinking. ETH’s reaction around the $2,200 liquidation cluster is the immediate price test of Lee’s call.
Reported by AMBCrypto.
Source: AMBCrypto