Bernstein has identified a massive tokenized credit opportunity for Figure Technology stock, estimating a $4 trillion addressable market. This pivot from traditional lending into blockchain-based credit positions Figure for explosive growth. The firm reiterated its “Outperform” rating with a $67 price target, signaling significant upside.
Bernstein Tokenized Credit Thesis: A $4 Trillion Opportunity
Bernstein’s research note highlights Figure Technology Solutions’ transition from a home equity line of credit (HELOC) originator into a broader platform. This platform now spans blockchain infrastructure and AI-driven credit markets. The core of this shift is tokenization, which converts loans into tradable onchain assets that settle in real time. Bernstein estimates the tokenized credit market at roughly $4 trillion. This figure dwarfs the traditional HELOC lending market, offering Figure a much larger growth runway.
Also read: Ethics standoff threatens Senate progress on CLARITY Act crypto bill ahead of Thursday markup
Figure’s stock (FIGR) has already risen nearly 10% over the past month. Yet, Bernstein believes the stock remains undervalued. The $67 price target implies roughly 67% upside from current levels. The firm maintains its previous outlook, citing strong momentum in loan volumes. In April, loan volumes reached $1.34 billion, up 108% year over year. This marked the second consecutive month above $1 billion. Bernstein projects total loan volumes to climb to $16.5 billion by 2027 from $8.4 billion in 2025.
Blockchain Credit Market: Beyond HELOC Lending
Bernstein’s $4 trillion estimate refers to the total annual volume of credit origination across multiple loan categories. These include mortgages, auto loans, home equity lines of credit, and small-business loans. Figure is expanding beyond its core HELOC business into these segments. The company’s Hastra ecosystem now includes tokenized credit products designed for decentralized finance (DeFi) and broader blockchain markets.
Also read: Circle stock surges 15% after strong earnings, $222M ARC token presale fuels stablecoin optimism
The broader real-world asset tokenization market is currently valued at around $5.5 billion. This highlights the gap between today’s adoption and the long-term growth opportunity. Other projects, like Centrifuge, are also experimenting with bringing credit onchain. Centrifuge has expanded its DeFi platform to include tokenized credit and US Treasury products on new blockchain networks. This trend indicates a growing institutional interest in blockchain-based lending.
Figure’s Strategic Pivot and AI-Driven Credit
Figure’s strategy involves more than just tokenization. The company is integrating AI-driven credit markets into its platform. This combination of blockchain and AI allows for faster, more efficient loan origination and settlement. It also opens up new revenue streams from data analytics and platform fees. Bernstein’s analysis suggests this dual approach gives Figure a competitive edge in the evolving digital asset lending space.
Loan volume growth is a key indicator of Figure’s success. The company’s April performance, with $1.34 billion in loans, demonstrates strong demand. This growth trajectory supports Bernstein’s projection of $16.5 billion in total loan volumes by 2027. The firm expects this growth to continue as Figure expands into new loan categories and geographies.
Tokenized Credit Market: Current State and Future Potential
The tokenized credit sector remains a small segment of the broader RWA market. However, industry data shows steady growth. The sector is currently valued at around $5.5 billion, but Bernstein’s $4 trillion estimate suggests enormous potential. This gap between current adoption and future opportunity is driving investor interest.
Other players are also entering the space. RedStone recently launched a settlement layer to address the RWA liquidity gap in DeFi lending. This development highlights the infrastructure challenges that must be overcome for tokenized credit to scale. Figure’s platform, with its integrated blockchain and AI capabilities, is well-positioned to address these challenges.
Key Drivers of Tokenized Credit Growth
- Efficiency: Onchain settlement reduces settlement times from days to seconds.
- Transparency: Blockchain provides an immutable record of loan ownership and performance.
- Liquidity: Tokenization allows loans to be traded on secondary markets, increasing liquidity.
- Accessibility: DeFi integration opens credit markets to a global investor base.
Impact on Figure Technology Stock and Investor Sentiment
Bernstein’s endorsement has boosted investor confidence in Figure Technology stock. The “Outperform” rating and $67 price target provide a clear catalyst for price appreciation. The stock’s recent 10% gain reflects this positive sentiment. However, Bernstein believes the market has not fully priced in the tokenized credit opportunity.
The company’s pivot beyond HELOC lending is a key factor. Figure’s expansion into auto loans and small-business loans through the Hastra ecosystem diversifies its revenue streams. This reduces reliance on any single loan category. The integration of AI-driven credit markets further enhances Figure’s competitive position.
Conclusion
Bernstein’s analysis reveals a transformative opportunity for Figure Technology Solutions. The tokenized credit market, estimated at $4 trillion, represents a massive growth vector. Figure’s pivot from HELOC lending to a broader blockchain and AI-driven platform positions it to capture this opportunity. With strong loan volume growth and a clear strategic vision, Figure Technology stock appears undervalued. The $67 price target offers significant upside for investors. As tokenization scales across broader loan markets, Figure is set to become a leader in the blockchain credit market.
FAQs
Q1: What is the tokenized credit opportunity for Figure Technology stock?
A1: Bernstein estimates a $4 trillion addressable market for tokenized credit. This includes mortgages, auto loans, and small-business loans moving onchain. Figure’s platform is designed to capitalize on this trend.
Q2: Why did Bernstein reiterate an “Outperform” rating on Figure stock?
A2: Bernstein sees Figure’s pivot beyond HELOC lending into blockchain and AI-driven credit as undervalued. The firm set a $67 price target, implying 67% upside.
Q3: How does Figure Technology use blockchain for credit?
A3: Figure tokenizes loans, converting them into tradable onchain assets. This enables real-time settlement and integration with DeFi markets through its Hastra ecosystem.
Q4: What is the current size of the tokenized credit market?
A4: The sector is currently valued at around $5.5 billion. Bernstein’s $4 trillion estimate reflects the long-term potential as adoption scales.
Q5: What other companies are involved in tokenized credit?
A5: Centrifuge has expanded its DeFi platform to include tokenized credit and US Treasury products. RedStone launched a settlement layer to address liquidity gaps in RWA lending.
Be the first to comment