A prominent Bitcoin whale known as ‘pension-usdt.eth’ is holding a short position on 1,000 BTC despite incurring approximately $13 million in unrealized losses, according to on-chain data from HypurrScan.IO. The trader opened the position when Bitcoin was trading near $67,990, and with the cryptocurrency now hovering around $81,000 to $82,000, the bearish bet has gone deep into the red.
Whale’s High-Stakes Bet on Bitcoin Decline
The trader is using 3x cross employ on the short position, which is currently worth about $81 million. If Bitcoin’s price rises to $100,810, the entire position will be liquidated. In addition to the BTC short, pension-usdt.eth also holds a short on 20,000 Ether (ETH), valued at roughly $46.1 million, bringing total bearish exposure to over $127 million. Funding costs from both positions have added more than $125,000, though that amount is small compared to the unrealized losses.
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The trader, who previously boasted 20 consecutive winning trades and an 85% win rate according to Lookonchain, confirmed on social media that he remains committed to the short, stating that ‘the trade makes sense.’
Technical Indicators Suggest Possible Pullback
The whale’s conviction appears to be supported by a growing cluster of bearish technical signals. Bitcoin recently showed signs of upside exhaustion near a strong resistance confluence, which includes the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern, both around $82,430. A successful breakdown from this wedge could see Bitcoin drop toward a measured target near $71,500, which would reduce the trader’s unrealized loss to roughly $3.5 million.
Analyst Crypto Kid highlighted that rejection from the 200-day SMA has historically preceded prolonged bear markets. He noted that the last two times this retest occurred at a similar point in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, prices dropped an average of 68%. A comparable decline from current levels would push Bitcoin below $30,000, turning the whale’s short into a profit of approximately $38 million.
Diverging Views on Market Structure
Not all analysts agree that history will repeat itself. Analyst CRG pointed out that during the 2022 bear cycle, Bitcoin failed to post a single daily close above the Ichimoku cloud, a key dynamic resistance level. In contrast, Bitcoin is currently trading comfortably above the daily cloud, which CRG interprets as a sign that the current market structure has shifted. The breakout above the cloud in previous cycles marked the beginning of a new bull market.
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, echoed a similar view, arguing that the current bear market has ‘materially decoupled from past cycles.’ He attributed Bitcoin’s relative strength to steady ETF inflows and continued accumulation by corporate treasuries such as Strategy. On the prediction market platform Kalshi, bettors now see a 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026, which would trigger the liquidation of the whale’s $81 million position.
Conclusion
The standoff between pension-usdt.eth and the market highlights the high-risk nature of leveraged short positions in a volatile asset like Bitcoin. While technical indicators suggest a potential pullback, the broader market structure and institutional inflows may limit the downside. The outcome of this trade will depend on whether Bitcoin breaks resistance or reverses toward the wedge target, with significant financial consequences either way.
FAQs
Q1: Who is pension-usdt.eth?
A: Pension-usdt.eth is a pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader known for a high win rate on leveraged positions. The trader is currently short 1,000 BTC and 20,000 ETH, with combined bearish exposure exceeding $127 million.
Q2: What happens if Bitcoin reaches $100,810?
A: If Bitcoin’s price hits $100,810, the whale’s 1,000 BTC short position will be fully liquidated, resulting in a total loss of the position’s collateral. Kalshi bettors currently assign a 50% probability to Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026.
Q3: Why do some analysts think Bitcoin will drop?
A: Technical analysts point to Bitcoin’s rejection near the 200-day SMA and a rising wedge pattern, which historically have preceded significant price declines. A breakdown from the wedge could target $71,500, and a broader bear market could push prices below $30,000 based on past cycle patterns.
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