Prediction Markets

Bitcoin News

Modern office interior with a large digital screen showing blockchain network and financial charts, symbolizing venture capital investment in crypto.
Bitcoin News

a16z raises $2.2 billion for new crypto fund focused on stablecoins and prediction markets

May 6, 2026 Jackson Miller

Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto investment arm, a16z Crypto, has raised $2.2 billion for its fifth dedicated fund, signaling sustained venture capital interest in digital assets even as the broader market experiences a quieter phase. The fund, announced on May 6, 2026, will target projects building stablecoins, perpetual futures, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets. Fund focus […]

Dutch user accessing prediction markets on laptop with Kalshi and Hyperliquid interfaces despite Polymarket ban in Netherlands
Bitcoin News

Polymarket Ban in Netherlands Fails to Stop Dutch Users from Accessing Prediction Markets

May 6, 2026 Jackson Miller

Despite the Polymarket ban in the Netherlands, Dutch users continue to access prediction markets through alternative platforms. The Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) blocked Polymarket in February 2025 for operating without a gambling license. However, platforms like Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Interactive Brokers still offer their services to Dutch residents. Polymarket Ban in Netherlands: What Happened? The […]

Exterior of SEC headquarters in Washington D.C. on a sunny day, symbolizing regulatory scrutiny of prediction market ETFs.
Bitcoin News

SEC Delays Launch of Prediction Market ETFs, Citing Structural and Risk Concerns

May 6, 2026 Jackson Miller

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed the anticipated launch of the first exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, requesting additional information from issuers about product mechanics and investor risk disclosures. The move, reported by Reuters on Monday, affects more than two dozen proposed ETFs from Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise. Regulatory Halt on […]

Professional trading desk with monitors showing event contract data and charts
Bitcoin News

Prediction markets enter institutional era after first block trade, Bernstein says

May 6, 2026 Jackson Miller

Institutional investors are beginning to enter prediction markets, a sector long dominated by retail users, as block trades, custom contracts, and evolving U.S. regulatory frameworks create new opportunities for hedging and investment. A May 4 report from Bernstein highlights this shift, pointing to the first bespoke institutional block trade executed on Kalshi as a key […]

Prediction markets study shows informed minority drives accuracy, not crowd wisdom.
Bitcoin News

Prediction Markets Reflect ‘Wisdom of an Informed Minority,’ Not Crowd: Study Reveals Surprising Flaw

April 27, 2026 Jackson Miller

A new study challenges a core assumption about prediction markets. These platforms, often hailed for aggregating collective intelligence, may actually reflect the ‘wisdom of an informed minority’ rather than the crowd. The research, published in a peer-reviewed journal, suggests that a small group of highly informed participants drives market accuracy. This finding has major implications […]

New York and Illinois executive order banning prediction market trading by state employees to prevent corruption.
Bitcoin News

Prediction Markets Ban: New York and Illinois Crack Down on State Employee Insider Trading

April 23, 2026 Jackson Miller

New York and Illinois moved this week to block state employees from using prediction markets, citing a surge in insider trading risks. Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on April 22, 2026, following Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s similar action just days earlier. The orders aim to stop public officials from profiting on non-public information. […]

CFTC investigator reviewing oil futures trading data related to Iran policy announcements.
Bitcoin News

CFTC Investigation Exposes Suspicious Oil Trades Before Key Iran War Announcements

April 16, 2026 Jackson Miller

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal regulators are examining whether traders had advance knowledge of Trump administration decisions on Iran, according to a new report. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched an investigation into suspicious oil futures trades that occurred just minutes before two major policy announcements in March and April 2026. This CFTC investigation […]