Despite the Polymarket ban in the Netherlands, Dutch users continue to access prediction markets through alternative platforms. The Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) blocked Polymarket in February 2025 for operating without a gambling license. However, platforms like Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Interactive Brokers still offer their services to Dutch residents.
Polymarket Ban in Netherlands: What Happened?
The Ksa imposed the Polymarket ban in February 2025. The regulator stated that Polymarket violated Dutch gambling laws. The platform allowed users to bet on real-world events without proper authorization. The Ksa warned that similar platforms face the same restrictions.
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A Ksa spokesperson confirmed this stance. “Websites similar to Polymarket also fall under our supervision and can therefore be sanctioned by us,” the spokesperson said. This statement aims to deter other prediction market operators from targeting Dutch users.
Polymarket was the largest prediction market globally before the ban. It processed billions of dollars in trading volume. The ban forced Polymarket to block Dutch IP addresses and restrict access for local users.
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Dutch Users Still Access Prediction Markets via Alternatives
Despite the Polymarket ban, Dutch users find ways to participate. US-based Kalshi actively targets the Dutch market. According to an investigation by Dutch financial newspaper FD, Kalshi allows bets on Dutch Eredivisie football matches. Users previously speculated on Dutch elections through the platform.
Hyperliquid, a decentralized blockchain platform, recently expanded its prediction market offering to the Netherlands. The platform operates without a central authority, making regulatory enforcement difficult. Dutch users access Hyperliquid through its blockchain-based interface.
Interactive Brokers, a major investment firm, offers prediction products framed as financial contracts. The company claims oversight from the Irish central bank. However, the Irish central bank told FD it had no knowledge of this arrangement. It referred questions to the Irish gambling authority.
These alternatives create a fragmented regulatory market. Dutch users face no technical barriers to accessing these platforms. The Ksa’s enforcement actions target only platforms that violate gambling laws. But decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid operate outside traditional regulatory frameworks.
How Do These Platforms Bypass the Polymarket Ban?
Kalshi and Interactive Brokers use legal arguments to avoid gambling classifications. Kalshi positions itself as a regulated financial exchange. It operates under US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. This status helps it argue that its products are not gambling.
Interactive Brokers frames its prediction contracts as financial derivatives. The company claims these products fall under securities regulation, not gambling laws. This legal distinction allows it to operate in markets where gambling is restricted.
Hyperliquid uses blockchain technology to decentralize its operations. The platform has no central office or management team. This structure makes it difficult for regulators to enforce bans. Dutch users access Hyperliquid through cryptocurrency wallets and decentralized applications.
Prediction Markets Under Global Scrutiny
The Polymarket ban in the Netherlands is part of a broader global trend. Regulators worldwide are cracking down on unlicensed prediction platforms. Brazil moved to shut down 27 platforms in March 2025, including Kalshi and Polymarket. European nations like France, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Poland have blocked or penalized unauthorized platforms. Hungary and Portugal have specifically targeted Polymarket.
These actions reflect growing concern about consumer protection. Regulators worry that prediction markets resemble gambling. They argue that users lack safeguards against addiction and financial loss. The global crackdown creates uncertainty for the industry.
Regulatory Battle in the United States
In the US, the regulatory market is more fractured. The CFTC has filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin. These states attempted to regulate prediction markets. The CFTC argues that federal law preempts state action.
Venture capital firm a16z supports the federal position. The firm argues that state-level restrictions conflict with CFTC rules requiring impartial access. This legal battle could reach the Supreme Court. The outcome will shape the future of prediction markets in the US.
Data Shows Most Traders Lose Money on Prediction Markets
Research from London Business School, published in April 2025, reveals concerning trends. Only 3% of prediction market participants make consistent profits. Nearly 70% of traders lose money. This data raises questions about consumer protection.
The study analyzed trading patterns across multiple platforms. It found that most users lack the expertise to profit consistently. The high loss rate mirrors traditional gambling statistics. Regulators use this data to justify restrictions like the Polymarket ban.
Insider Trading Concerns in Prediction Markets
Insider trading also plagues prediction markets. Anonymous traders correctly bet on the US attack on Iran and the attempted kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. These bets raised suspicions of advance knowledge. Platforms lack mechanisms to prevent insider trading.
This issue undermines market integrity. If traders can profit from non-public information, the markets lose credibility. Regulators cite these concerns when imposing bans like the Polymarket ban in the Netherlands.
Conclusion
The Polymarket ban in the Netherlands has not stopped Dutch users from accessing prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Interactive Brokers continue to serve Dutch residents. The Ksa’s enforcement actions face challenges from decentralized platforms and legal loopholes. Global regulatory scrutiny intensifies, but enforcement remains inconsistent. Dutch users must manage a complex market where access persists despite official restrictions. The future of prediction markets depends on how regulators address these enforcement gaps.
FAQs
Q1: Why was Polymarket banned in the Netherlands?
The Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) banned Polymarket in February 2025 for operating without a gambling license. The regulator determined that Polymarket’s prediction market activities violated Dutch gambling laws.
Q2: Can Dutch users still access prediction markets after the Polymarket ban?
Yes, Dutch users can still access platforms like Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Interactive Brokers. These platforms operate through legal loopholes or decentralized structures that make enforcement difficult.
Q3: What alternatives to Polymarket are available in the Netherlands?
Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Interactive Brokers offer prediction market services to Dutch users. Kalshi frames its products as regulated financial contracts. Hyperliquid operates on a decentralized blockchain. Interactive Brokers positions its offerings as financial derivatives.
Q4: Is it legal for Dutch users to use prediction markets after the Polymarket ban?
The legality is unclear. The Ksa’s ban targets platforms, not individual users. However, using unlicensed gambling platforms may carry risks. Users should consult legal advice for specific situations.
Q5: How do regulators enforce the Polymarket ban on decentralized platforms?
Regulators face challenges enforcing bans on decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid. These platforms have no central authority to target. Enforcement typically focuses on blocking IP addresses or restricting payment methods.
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