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Bitcoin‘s slide in October has pulled crypto market sentiment back to neutral. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 56 on Monday, down from 67 a week earlier and an August 26 peak of 82, which was the highest reading of the year, according to Decrypt.
The index runs from 0 to 100, with 0 marking extreme fear and 100 extreme greed. It sat at 68 a month ago and had reached extreme greed in late August, before the recent decline.
Also read: Bitcoin's 43% Q3 gain faces 5% Treasury yield hurdle
Key facts
- Bitcoin slid from $86,978 early last week to a low of $81,749.83 on October 8, a drop of about 6%, before recovering to roughly $83,800 on Monday, Decrypt reported.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on Wednesday, their worst day since June, and another $244.1 million the next day; a $21.1 million Friday inflow left them down a net $386.3 million for October.
- Brent crude topped $101 a barrel last week as ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz piled up, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest since 2002.
- Cryptobriefing reported the October 8 low at approximately $80,337, a level Decrypt did not cite, and put Bitcoin’s weekly decline at about 3% versus Decrypt’s close to 5%.
- Cryptobriefing added that BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about $207.7 million of the October 7-8 redemptions and that the 50-week average sits near $77,200.
Macro pressure, not a crypto problem
Decrypt noted that stocks, gold and Bitcoin sold off together on the day the yield spiked, which points to a macro trade rather than an issue specific to crypto. Oil feeds into shipping, manufacturing, farming and travel costs, so a sustained rise in crude tends to reach consumer prices. Higher inflation makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and more likely to raise them, the path the central bank’s latest minutes describe.
Bond investors respond by demanding higher yields, since inflation erodes the fixed payments Treasuries make. Because the Treasury yield is the benchmark risk-free return, a 30-year paying 5.70% pulls money away from riskier bets and raises borrowing costs. Bitcoin pays no yield and trades alongside stocks as a risk asset, so rising yields and rate-hike expectations tend to push it lower, as they did on October 7.
Also read: Bitcoin Holds Near $84K as ETF Inflows Hit Eight Sessions
Cryptobriefing framed the same pressure differently, citing the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 5.3% rather than the 30-year at 5.70%, and describing Brent crude as pushing above $100 a barrel rather than Decrypt’s $101 figure.
Prediction markets turn cautious
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, put 45% odds on Bitcoin touching $87,500 in October, down from 55% on October 7. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 slipped to 28% from 36%.
Myriad traders also priced 56% odds that Bitcoin drops to as low as $80,000, followed by 33% odds for a drop to $77,500 and 20% odds on $75,000.
Ethereum funds extended their outflow streak to nine days, with $635 million out this month, per Decrypt.
Why it matters
The swing from extreme greed to neutral in roughly seven weeks shows how quickly crypto sentiment can reverse after a summer rally. August’s advance lifted Bitcoin 24.9%, enough for Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee and Crypto Quant’s Kim Yong Yu to declare the bear market over, and that appetite has now cooled.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a key channel for institutional money. Cryptobriefing argued that a near half-billion-dollar single-day exit shows some of that money is getting cautious, and that holding the $80,000 floor of the recent range together with the 50-week average would keep the longer-term structure intact.
Cryptobriefing also noted the pullback arrived around the one-year anniversary of the October 2025 liquidation event, when more than $19 billion in positions were wiped out. Decrypt’s broader market context, by contrast, was macro-driven: Bitcoin remains about 34% below its all-time high above $126,000, set on October 6, 2025.
None of this is financial advice, and crypto markets are volatile and uncertain.
What to watch
Whether the $80,000 floor holds is the immediate question, alongside oil prices and Treasury yields that Decrypt and Cryptobriefing both identify as the forces moving Bitcoin. The market is now waiting for a reason to commit in either direction.
Reported by decrypt.co.
Sources: Decrypt, Cryptobriefing