Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward momentum during early Asian trading on Wednesday, reaching a new multi-month high of $82,240. Onchain data suggests the rally may have further room to run, with the next major price target sitting near $92,000 based on the short-term holder (STH) cost basis metric.
Short-term holder cost basis signals potential upside
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s price has reclaimed the average purchase price of short-term holders — investors who have held BTC for less than 155 days. That level currently stands at approximately $79,000. Historically, when Bitcoin moves above this onchain threshold, it has often preceded extended recovery phases. Investors returning to profit tend to hold rather than sell, which can attract fresh buying interest and trigger short squeezes as bearish positions unwind.
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Analysts point to similar patterns in previous cycles. In April 2025, Bitcoin reclaimed its realized price and rallied roughly 30% toward the upper band of the STH cost basis metric at $112,000 over the following four weeks. Comparable moves occurred in October 2024, October 2023, and January 2023. If history repeats, BTC could target $92,423 in the near term — about 13% above current prices.
Key resistance at $84,000 remains a hurdle
While the onchain outlook is bullish, Bitcoin faces immediate technical resistance in the $82,000 to $84,000 range. This zone corresponds with the November 2025 lows and the 200-day moving averages — the 200-day EMA sits at $82,600 and the 200-day SMA at $83,402. Trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades described this as a "big level" for bulls, noting that acceptance above it could lead to a further bounce into the $90,000s, while a rejection would likely keep prices rangebound with $80,000 as the ceiling.
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Bitcoin’s whale order book also shows concentrated sell orders between $82,000 and $84,000, making it a critical zone for bulls to overcome. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe identified $84,000 to $86,000 as the next resistance zone, with a breakout potentially pushing prices toward the 50-week moving average around $90,000.
Market sentiment shifting bullish
Additional onchain metrics support the bullish case. Bitcoin’s short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has flipped above 1, indicating that recent buyers are back in profit and selling pressure is easing. Analyst BitBull noted that this shift often marks a transition from accumulation into early bullish phases.
Bitcoin analyst Plan C commented that if the price can find sustained support above the STH cost basis level, it would confirm that the 50% drawdown from the $126,000 all-time high was merely a mid-cycle correction. Several technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in, with some analysts setting targets as high as $250,000 within a year.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s reclaim of the short-term holder cost basis at $79,000 provides a solid onchain foundation for further upside, with $92,000 emerging as the next logical target. However, the immediate resistance zone between $82,000 and $84,000 must be cleared first. Traders and investors should monitor whether BTC can flip this level into support, which would likely confirm the start of a more sustained recovery phase. As always, markets carry risk, and independent research is recommended before making any investment decisions.
FAQs
Q1: What is the short-term holder cost basis and why does it matter?
The short-term holder cost basis is the average purchase price of Bitcoin investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days. When Bitcoin’s price rises above this level, it historically signals that recent buyers are back in profit, which can reduce selling pressure and attract new buyers, often leading to extended price rallies.
Q2: What is the next key resistance level for Bitcoin?
The immediate resistance zone is between $82,000 and $84,000. This area aligns with the 200-day moving averages and concentrated sell orders from large holders (whales). Breaking above this level could open the path toward $90,000 to $92,000.
Q3: How reliable are onchain metrics like STH cost basis for predicting price movements?
Onchain metrics provide valuable context about market behavior and investor sentiment, but they are not foolproof predictors. Historical patterns show that reclaiming the STH cost basis has often preceded rallies, but past performance does not guarantee future results. These metrics are best used alongside other forms of technical and fundamental analysis.
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