Prediction market Polymarket recorded its first monthly trading volume decline since August in April, as rival Kalshi gained ground. Meanwhile, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet reported strong operating income but a substantial net loss tied to Bitcoin price declines, and US senators filed over 100 amendments to a key crypto market structure bill ahead of a Thursday markup.
Polymarket monthly volume falls 8.9% in April as Kalshi surges
Polymarket and its US-based trading application generated approximately $10.2 billion in trading volume in April, down from $11.2 billion in March — a decline of about 8.9%, according to data from Dune Analytics. This marks the first month-over-month drop since August 2025.
Also read: Polymarket monthly volume posts first decline since August as Kalshi gains ground
Rival prediction market Kalshi, however, saw its April trading volume climb roughly 13% to about $14.8 billion, capturing a larger share of the growing prediction market sector. Overall, the total monthly trading volume for prediction markets rose to approximately $29.8 billion in April from $26.5 billion in March, an increase of about 12.4%.
The data suggests that while the prediction market industry continues to expand, competition is intensifying, with Kalshi benefiting from regulatory clarity and US-based operations.
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Metaplanet Q1 operating income surges but Bitcoin losses hit bottom line
Metaplanet reported first-quarter operating income of 2.27 billion Japanese yen (approximately $14.38 million) on net sales of about $19.5 million, according to its Q1 fiscal year 2026 earnings release. The operating margin reached 73.6%, driven largely by surging Bitcoin option income, which more than tripled revenue from $5.5 million a year earlier.
However, the company recorded an ordinary loss of roughly $728 million, primarily due to non-cash valuation losses as Bitcoin’s price declined during the quarter. Bitcoin fell approximately 24% from around $87,000 on Jan. 1 to roughly $66,000 on March 31, according to CoinGecko data. Metaplanet marked its expanding Bitcoin holdings lower in line with the market decline.
The company’s Bitcoin Income Generation business, which includes option premiums and derivative valuation gains, contributed the bulk of sales, while hotel operations remained a small but stable contributor.
What this means for Bitcoin corporate treasuries
Metaplanet’s results highlight the volatility risk companies face when holding significant Bitcoin reserves. While option strategies can generate substantial operating income, sharp price declines can lead to large non-cash valuation losses that overshadow operational performance. This dynamic is likely to remain a key consideration for other firms considering similar Bitcoin treasury strategies.
Senators file over 100 amendments to crypto bill ahead of markup
US Senate Banking Committee members filed more than 100 amendments to a crypto market structure bill scheduled for markup on Thursday, according to a list obtained by POLITICO. The amendments address several unresolved issues, including stablecoin yield, crypto software developer protections, and ethics provisions.
Democratic Senators Jack Reed and Tina Smith introduced an amendment to strengthen the prohibition on stablecoin interest or yield by using a ‘substantially similar’ test rather than an ‘equivalence’ test. This challenges the latest version of the bill, which would ban stablecoin yields that are ‘functionally equivalent’ to interest-bearing bank deposits.
Another amendment from Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen proposes an ethics provision that would bar the president, vice president, senior officials, members of Congress, and their families from owning, promoting, or being affiliated with crypto. This provision has drawn support from both Democrats and some Republicans.
The bill aims to divide how US market regulators oversee crypto, with the House having passed a version called the CLARITY Act in July 2025. The markup will likely determine whether the bill advances to a Senate floor vote.
Conclusion
Today’s developments highlight key trends in crypto markets and regulation: competition is heating up among prediction market platforms, corporate Bitcoin strategies remain a double-edged sword, and US lawmakers are actively debating the future of crypto oversight. The outcome of Thursday’s Senate markup could have significant implications for the broader crypto industry.
FAQs
Q1: Why did Polymarket’s monthly volume decline in April?
The decline is attributed to increased competition from rival Kalshi, which saw its volume surge 13% in April. While the overall prediction market sector grew 12.4%, Polymarket’s market share decreased as users shifted to Kalshi.
Q2: How did Metaplanet report strong operating income but a large loss?
Metaplanet’s operating income surged due to Bitcoin option premiums and derivative gains, but the company recorded a $728 million ordinary loss from non-cash valuation write-downs as Bitcoin’s price fell 24% during the quarter.
Q3: What are the key issues in the Senate crypto bill amendments?
The amendments address stablecoin yield definitions, crypto software developer protections, and ethics provisions that would restrict crypto ownership by senior government officials and members of Congress.
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