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Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds bled $773.5 million in net outflows across October 22 and 23, 2026, a stretch in which the largest cryptocurrency fell 3.45% and kept losing ground into the weekend, according to Ambcrypto. ETF flows were net negative for the week of October 20 to 23, yet the onchain picture described in the same report pointed the other way.
Key facts
- Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $773.5 million on October 22-23, while Bitcoin dropped 3.45% over those two days.
- Analyst CW8900 said the 1-year change in whale holdings was approaching positive territory, rising from -282k BTC to -39k BTC.
- Whales bought 243k BTC in less than three months, according to that analysis.
- The MVRV Percentile stood at 25% after touching 0% on July 1, when Bitcoin traded at $59.3k, and peaking near 32% in late September.
- The 30-day futures positioning index rose to +0.3 from -0.5 a week earlier.
Whale distribution slows as exchange supply shrinks
The whale holdings metric covers the year-on-year change in large-wallet balances. CW8900’s reading showed selling pressure from whale distribution easing since July, with the indicator moving from -282k BTC toward zero. On that basis the analyst calculated that whales had added 243k BTC in under three months.
Also read: Bitcoin ETFs post four-day outflow streak as BTC fails to hold $65,000
Exchange flows told a similar story. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the 30-day exchange flow had been positive since September 22, meaning more Bitcoin was leaving exchanges than arriving. That reduces the supply readily available for sale, a condition usually read as buying.
In the futures market, the 30-day positioning index climbed to +0.3 from -0.5 a week earlier. The reading was positive but close to zero, which Adler described as an equilibrium in which neither buyers nor sellers hold an advantage.
Also read: Satoshi-Era 100 BTC Moves After 16 Years, Worth $8.3M
MVRV percentile points to early-to-mid accumulation
The MVRV Percentile normalizes the market value to realized value ratio onto a 0% to 100% scale, with very low readings marking deep undervaluation and high readings marking euphoria and overextension. Adler reported the metric at 0% on July 1, a recovery to 32% by late September, and a pullback to 25% since.
Against that historical range, Adler characterized the market as still in an early to mid accumulation phase. The 3-day price chart also showed a bullish structure in place, which the report said supported the longer-term view of a change in market regime.
Why it matters
ETF flows are one of the most closely watched demand signals in crypto because they reflect real capital moving through regulated vehicles. A gap between falling ETF demand and rising whale balances puts two widely followed indicators in conflict, which complicates how traders read the recent price weakness. For institutional allocators, ETF redemptions can pressure prices in the short run, while long-horizon holders look to supply data to judge whether the selling is exhausted.
What to watch
Adler flagged the combination that would flip the current reading: net inflows to exchanges alongside negative positioning index scores. Either leg of that pair turning on its own would be worth tracking in the coming weeks, along with the next weekly print on spot ETF flows.
This is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and uncertain, and readers should do their own research before making any decision.
Reported by ambcrypto.com.
Source: AMBCrypto