Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched $78,000 on Thursday before retreating, as a cautious outlook from retail giant Walmart and growing expectations of tighter US monetary policy weighed on risk assets. Yet, professional traders have been quietly increasing their bullish positions, signaling confidence that the $76,000 support level can hold.
Top traders turn bullish despite macro headwinds
Data from CoinGlass shows the top traders’ long-to-short ratio on Binance and OKX jumped to its highest level in two weeks. On Binance, longs have held an 8% advantage for three consecutive days, while OKX traders reduced short exposure between Wednesday and Thursday. In absolute terms, the ratio remains neutral, but the shift suggests that professional participants see limited downside risk near current levels.
Also read: Bitcoin's Coinbase premium hits six-week low, but longer-term demand shows signs of stabilization
Walmart warning and oil prices fuel rate hike fears
Walmart (WMT) shares fell 7% after the retailer issued weak guidance for 2027, citing persistent financial stress among low-income consumers. CFO John Furner noted that households are “dealing with financial distress” as high oil prices squeeze budgets. Brent crude has remained above $95 per barrel for the past month, driven by the prolonged conflict in Iran and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The combination of elevated energy costs and slowing consumer demand has shifted expectations for the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of an interest rate hike by September has risen to 37%, up from 0% just one month ago. Higher rates would increase borrowing costs on the $39 trillion US government debt, creating additional headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Also read: Senator Warren accuses OCC chief of violating banking law with crypto trust charter approvals
Institutional demand remains subdued
The Coinbase premium, which measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase versus major exchanges quoting in USDT, turned negative at 0.10%. This discount typically reflects weak institutional buying pressure. Since May 12, US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows of $2.07 billion, reinforcing the cautious institutional stance.
On a more constructive note, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates have stabilized at a neutral 7% annualized rate, reversing the elevated short-paying conditions seen on May 14 when shorts paid 13% to maintain positions. This normalization suggests that the aggressive bearish sentiment from earlier in the month has dissipated.
Can Bitcoin rally to $82,000?
While the reduction in short positions and balanced funding rates are encouraging, the broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging. Sustained high oil prices, weakening consumer spending, and the prospect of Fed rate hikes create a difficult backdrop for a sustained breakout. For Bitcoin to reach $82,000 in the near term, bulls would need to overcome both ETF outflows and deteriorating economic growth expectations. The $76,000 level, however, appears to be gaining credibility as a short-term floor.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price action remains range-bound as conflicting signals emerge: professional traders are cautiously adding long exposure, while institutional flows and macroeconomic data point to headwinds. The $76,000 support is strengthening, but a rally to $82,000 likely requires a shift in the broader economic outlook or renewed ETF inflows.
FAQs
Q1: What does the long-to-short ratio tell us about Bitcoin’s price direction?
The long-to-short ratio reflects the positioning of top traders on major exchanges. A rising ratio suggests growing confidence in price increases, but it is a sentiment indicator, not a guarantee of future moves.
Q2: How does rising oil prices affect Bitcoin?
Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressure, which can lead central banks to maintain or raise interest rates. This typically reduces liquidity and risk appetite, weighing on assets like Bitcoin.
Q3: Why are Bitcoin ETF outflows significant?
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows indicate that institutional investors are reducing exposure. Sustained outflows can limit upward price momentum and signal cautious sentiment among large-scale participants.
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