Bitcoin’s recent rally to three-month highs is prompting a surge in profit-taking among holders, a trend that could accelerate if prices continue to climb, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Moreno warned that despite the short-term price recovery, Bitcoin remains in a bear market.
Profit-taking reaches highest level since December
Holders realized 14,600 BTC in profits on Monday, valued at approximately $1.1 billion, following Bitcoin’s April rally. Moreno noted that this represents the highest single day of profit-taking since December 10, 2025, when BTC was trading above $90,000. The spike is captured in CryptoQuant’s data on realized profits, which measures the value of coins moved at a profit compared to their last transaction price.
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Moreno also pointed to the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), an onchain metric that tracks profit-taking by wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days. The ratio has risen above 1, a level that indicates what he described as "clear profit-taking territory."
Bear market signals persist despite rally
While profit-taking has increased, Moreno emphasized that demand has not kept pace. "Bitcoin holders are realizing more than 20,000 BTC in net profits on a 30-day rolling basis, the first positive reading since December 22, 2025," he said. This follows a period of heavy net losses in February and March that reached as deep as 398,000 BTC.
According to Moreno, spikes in realized profit levels during crypto bear markets typically signal local price tops or sideways price action. He reiterated that Bitcoin remains in a bear market despite the recent price recovery.
ETF inflows provide mixed signals
Inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have remained strong, with four days of positive inflows this week, according to data from Farside. ETF inflows surged past $1 billion before an outflow of $268.5 million on Friday. Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin has bottomed out or if the bear market will deepen.
Michael Terpin, an early Bitcoin investor, told Cointelegraph that BTC could bottom out at $57,000 in October 2026, based on historic price patterns where the cycle low occurs about one year after the cycle top. Terpin said there is a "chance" Bitcoin might reclaim $100,000 in 2026, but described the odds as "unlikely."
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rally to three-month highs has triggered significant profit-taking, but onchain data suggests the broader market remains bearish. While ETF inflows offer some optimism, analysts caution that demand has not caught up with supply. Investors should monitor onchain metrics like realized profits and STH-SOPR for signs of market direction, while remaining cautious of potential local tops.
FAQs
Q1: What is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR)?
A1: STH-SOPR is an onchain metric that measures whether short-term Bitcoin holders (those holding for less than 155 days) are selling at a profit or loss. A value above 1 indicates profit-taking.
Q2: Why does profit-taking matter in a bear market?
A2: In bear markets, spikes in profit-taking often signal local price tops or sideways movement, as selling pressure can cap further gains. It suggests that traders are locking in gains rather than holding for higher prices.
Q3: Are Bitcoin ETF inflows a reliable indicator of market health?
A3: ETF inflows can indicate institutional demand, but they are not a standalone signal. Analysts consider them alongside onchain data, market sentiment, and broader economic factors to assess market health.
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