Bitcoin’s recent rebound from multi-year lows has hit a wall at $80,000, with on-chain data revealing that short-term holders and spot Bitcoin ETF investors are using the rally to exit positions. After climbing 32% from below $60,000 to a 10-week high of $79,500 on April 22, BTC has since corrected to around $76,000, failing to breach the psychologically important $80,000 mark.
On-chain data reveals overhead supply cluster
According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin faces a concentrated resistance zone between the True Market Mean at $78,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $79,000. This range represents a breakeven level for recent buyers, who are now selling into strength. Glassnode’s latest weekly report describes this as a textbook bear market pattern, where profit-taking by price-sensitive investors exhausts upward momentum.
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Cost basis distribution data shows that investors hold approximately 475,301 BTC at an average acquisition price between $77,800 and $80,880, reinforcing the significance of this supply cluster. Traders note that Bitcoin must flip the $80,000 level into support to target higher levels near $84,000.
Short-term holders book profits at accelerated rate
The 24-hour simple moving average of STH Realized Profit spiked to $7.2 million per hour on April 15, roughly four times the baseline established since mid-April. This confirms that recent buyers seized the rally as a distribution opportunity. Glassnode notes that buy-side liquidity was insufficient to absorb this wave of profit realization, capping momentum and triggering the subsequent rejection.
Technical analyst SuperBitcoinBro observed on X that while Bitcoin has fired multiple bottoming signals on higher timeframes after reclaiming its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, the price still needs to clear $80,000. Daan Crypto Trades described $80,000 as the main level for bulls in the short to medium term.
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows add to selling pressure
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded outflows for three consecutive days totaling $390 million, marking the longest outflow streak since March 20. That earlier streak accompanied an 11.5% BTC price drop after rejection at $76,000. Analysts at Wise Advise said the return to outflows after a nine-day inflow streak may signal that a local top is in place.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s inability to break above $80,000 reflects a confluence of on-chain resistance, profit-taking by short-term holders, and renewed ETF outflows. While the asset has shown signs of bottoming on higher timeframes, bulls must overcome the overhead supply cluster between $78,000 and $80,000 to regain control. Until then, the mid-term bias remains tilted toward further downward pressure.
FAQs
Q1: Why is Bitcoin struggling to break $80,000?
On-chain data shows a large supply cluster between $78,000 and $80,000 where short-term holders are selling near breakeven, creating overhead resistance. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have resumed, adding selling pressure.
Q2: What is the short-term holder cost basis and why does it matter?
The short-term holder cost basis is the average purchase price of coins moved within the last 155 days. It acts as a key resistance level because recent buyers tend to sell when price approaches their breakeven point, capping upside momentum.
Q3: What level does Bitcoin need to break to confirm a bullish trend?
Traders say Bitcoin must flip $80,000 into support to target $84,000. A decisive break above $80,000 would signal that bulls remain in control and could pave the way for further upside.
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