Bitcoin’s April rally was futures-driven, signaling risk of extended decline: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s recent rally in April may have been more speculative than sustainable, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. In a report published Thursday, the firm warned that the roughly 20% price increase — from $66,000 to a peak of $79,000 — was fueled almost entirely by perpetual futures demand, while spot market demand actually contracted.

Futures drove price, not fundamentals

CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights a clear divergence: Bitcoin’s price rose, but spot demand fell. The firm described this as one of the clearest on-chain signals that the rally was speculative rather than structural. Historically, such patterns have preceded extended price declines, including the onset of the 2022 bear market.

Also read: Bermuda to move key financial services onto Stellar blockchain, premier says

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours. However, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index — which measures market and network activity on a scale of 100 — dropped from 50 to 40 in April, placing the market in a range that has historically signaled continued weakness.

Contrasting views from industry analysts

The CryptoQuant report stands in contrast to a Tuesday note from Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who attributed the rally primarily to buying by the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy. Hougan also pointed to strong ETF inflows of $3.8 billion since March 1 and renewed purchases by long-term holders as contributing factors.

Also read: Senate CLARITY Act markup faces ethics debate as North Korea crypto thefts hit $2B and Bitmine slows Ether buys

CryptoQuant acknowledged that multiple drivers are at play but emphasized that the divergence between price and spot demand is a historically reliable bearish signal.

What this means for Bitcoin investors

For traders and long-term holders, the report serves as a cautionary note. While short-term price movements can be influenced by futures speculation, sustained rallies typically require genuine spot market demand. Without it, the current price level may be vulnerable to correction. The pattern mirrors early 2022, when futures-driven gains gave way to a prolonged downturn.

Conclusion

CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s April rally lacked fundamental support, raising the risk of a multi-month decline. Investors should monitor spot demand and futures activity closely, as the divergence between the two has historically preceded bearish phases. While other factors like ETF inflows and institutional buying remain positive, the on-chain data warrants caution.

FAQs

Q1: What did CryptoQuant’s report say about Bitcoin’s April rally?
A: CryptoQuant stated that the rally was driven almost entirely by perpetual futures demand, while spot demand contracted, a pattern that has historically preceded extended price declines.

Q2: How does this compare to the 2022 bear market?
A: The current setup mirrors early 2022, when futures demand surged while spot demand dropped, ultimately leading to a sustained price decline.

Q3: What is the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index?
A: It is a metric that analyzes market and network activity on a scale of 100. A drop from 50 to 40 in April indicates ‘getting bearish’ conditions, historically associated with continued price weakness.

Written by

Jackson Miller

Jackson Miller is a senior cryptocurrency journalist and market analyst with over eight years of experience covering digital assets, blockchain technology, and decentralized finance. Before joining CoinPulseHQ as lead writer, Jackson worked as a financial technology correspondent for several business publications where he developed deep expertise in derivatives markets, on-chain analytics, and institutional crypto adoption. At CoinPulseHQ, Jackson covers Bitcoin price movements, Ethereum ecosystem developments, and emerging Layer-2 protocols.