Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts has said that Bitcoin may be entering the latter stages of its current bear market, with early technical signs suggesting that downside momentum is beginning to slow. Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, Coutts offered a measured outlook on the leading cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory, even as broader market sentiment remains cautious.
Bitcoin’s current cycle resembles a ‘garden-variety’ bear market
According to Coutts, Bitcoin’s current price action is consistent with what he described as a “typical garden-variety bear market.” BTC is currently trading around the $63,000 mark, roughly 50% below its all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025. He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has declined by about 50% compared with the previous market cycle, suggesting that the current downturn may be less severe than prior bear markets.
Also read: Ethereum gains 3% on tokenization boom but weak onchain data raises $1,700 retest risk
“I think we’re getting through most of the bear market action. It’s still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we’re approaching at least the second half,” Coutts said.
Early technical signs of easing selling pressure
Coutts pointed to emerging bullish divergences on longer time frame momentum indicators as early signals that the pace of selling is decelerating. However, he cautioned that this does not yet signal an end to the bear market from a technical perspective.
Also read: Kraken to revamp app with AI assistant that recommends trades based on user goals
“I’m starting to see a bullish divergence appear on the longer time frames on momentum. So that’s just telling me that the acceleration, or should I say, the negative momentum is decelerating, but that doesn’t mean that we’re out of this bear market from a technical perspective at all,” he said.
While many market participants have attributed Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter downturn to tightening global liquidity conditions, Coutts emphasized that weakening onchain fundamentals also played a significant role. “Onchain demand, which definitely drives price and is somewhat correlated to things like global liquidity and the business cycle, they started to deteriorate as well,” he added.
Outlook: $200,000 to $250,000 in two to three years
When asked about long-range forecasts from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, who have suggested Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, Coutts expressed skepticism. He noted that his own models had previously projected a $1 million price target around 2032 or 2033, but that such forecasts depend heavily on future monetary policy.
“I’m more comfortable with a forecast in the next sort of two to three years that Bitcoin should get to sort of $200,000 to 250,000,” he said.
Beyond that timeframe, Coutts said it is “very hard to say,” adding that the potential impact of artificial intelligence on Bitcoin’s valuation remains an open question. “I think it’s gonna be interesting what AI brings to the equation, as you know, we have wallets spun up for agents, and what are they gonna essentially store their value in? Are they gonna make the same decisions as what humans have?”
Quantum computing: A growing long-term risk
Coutts also highlighted quantum computing as a longer-term risk to Bitcoin’s valuation, warning that the community will need to take decisive action by 2027 to address the potential threat. He noted that implementing a major protocol upgrade in a decentralized network can take approximately five years, and that developers who dismiss quantum concerns are on the “wrong side of this.”
This echoes ongoing discussions within the Bitcoin developer community about the need for quantum-resistant cryptography, a topic that has gained urgency as quantum computing technology advances.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin remains in a bear market, Coutts’ analysis suggests that the worst of the selling may be behind it, with a potential recovery to $200,000–$250,000 over the next two to three years. However, he warns that markets rarely follow historical patterns neatly, and that long-term risks from quantum computing and evolving AI dynamics remain important factors to watch.
FAQs
Q1: What did Jamie Coutts say about Bitcoin’s current bear market?
He said Bitcoin appears to be in the late stages of a typical garden-variety bear market, with downside momentum slowing and early bullish divergences appearing on longer time frames.
Q2: What is Coutts’ price target for Bitcoin?
He forecasts Bitcoin reaching $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two to three years, but is skeptical of a $1 million target by 2030.
Q3: What risks did Coutts highlight for Bitcoin’s future?
He pointed to quantum computing as a growing long-term threat, noting that the community needs to act by 2027 to implement quantum-resistant upgrades. He also cited the potential impact of AI on Bitcoin demand as an open question.
Be the first to comment