Prediction Markets Archives - Page 11 of 16

Polymarket prediction market interface alongside U.S. Capitol, visualizing bets on alien disclosure odds.

Polymarket Traders Bet Heavily on Stunning Odds of U.S. Alien Disclosure Before 2027

February 20, 2026 Jackson Miller

New York, May 2025: A significant financial movement on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is capturing attention far beyond the cryptocurrency community. Traders are actively boosting the contract odds that the United States government will formally disclose evidence of non-human intelligence, often colloquially referred to as “alien disclosure,” before the end of 2026. With […]

Inframarkets solution for prediction market liquidity and resolution risk on Solana blockchain

Inframarkets Reveals Novel Solution for Prediction Market Liquidity and Resolution

February 19, 2026 Jackson Miller

Global, May 2025: The persistent challenges of liquidity and resolution risk have long constrained the growth and mainstream adoption of prediction markets. A new infrastructure protocol, Inframarkets, has entered the space with a novel technical architecture designed to address these core issues directly. By utilizing a deterministic Input-Output State (IOS) oracle settlement mechanism and pioneering […]

Kalshi prediction markets analysis showing accuracy matching Federal Reserve interest rate forecasts

Kalshi Prediction Markets Stun Experts by Matching Federal Reserve Survey Accuracy

February 19, 2026 Jackson Miller

New York, April 2025: A groundbreaking analysis reveals that prediction market data from Kalshi, a regulated platform where users trade on event outcomes, has demonstrated forecasting accuracy on U.S. interest rates that rivals—and in some cases surpasses—the venerable Federal Reserve Survey of Economic Projections. This finding challenges long-held assumptions about macroeconomic forecasting, suggesting that the […]

U.S. Capitol with crypto symbols representing the CLARITY Act and Coinbase CEO's progress statement.

CLARITY Act Odds Skyrocket as Coinbase CEO Hails ‘Great Progress’ in Senate

February 19, 2026 Jackson Miller

Washington D.C., May 2025: The political landscape for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States shifted dramatically this week as prediction market odds for the passage of the landmark CLARITY Act surged to 90%. This remarkable spike followed public comments from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who cited “great progress” in ongoing Senate negotiations, injecting significant optimism […]

NYSE President links Polymarket election bet to S&P futures surge, showing blockchain prediction market impact.

Polymarket Election Bet: NYSE President Reveals Stunning Link to Market Surge

February 19, 2026 Jackson Miller

New York, April 2025: A startling connection between blockchain-based prediction markets and traditional financial indices has emerged from the highest echelons of Wall Street. NYSE President Lynn Martin has publicly stated that betting activity on the platform Polymarket, specifically its shifting odds for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, preceded a noticeable spike in S&P 500 […]

Bitwise files 2028 U.S. election prediction market ETF, a landmark SEC filing for regulated political contracts.

Bitwise Prediction Market ETF: The Pioneering 2028 U.S. Election Fund Filing Explained

February 18, 2026 Jackson Miller

New York, April 2025: In a landmark move for both finance and political technology, asset manager Bitwise has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a prediction market Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) specifically targeting the 2028 United States elections. This filing represents a major moment, marking the first serious attempt to bring regulated, […]

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig defends federal oversight of prediction markets in a congressional hearing.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig Vows to Defend Federal Oversight of Prediction Markets

February 18, 2026 Jackson Miller

Washington, D.C., April 2025: In a significant move that underscores a growing regulatory clash, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig has formally intervened to defend the agency’s authority over prediction markets. The chairman filed an amicus brief and made public statements affirming the CFTC’s commitment to federal oversight, a stance that directly challenges […]

Graph showing Polymarket's record 679,000 monthly active addresses ATH amid prediction market regulatory scrutiny.

Polymarket Shatters Records with 679,000 Monthly Active Addresses ATH as Prediction Markets Face Intense Regulatory Scrutiny

February 18, 2026 Jackson Miller

Global, May 2025: The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has recorded a staggering all-time high (ATH) of 679,000 monthly active addresses, according to the latest on-chain data. This remarkable user growth directly correlates with a significant surge in the platform’s monthly trading volume, marking a decisive moment for the prediction market sector. The milestone arrives […]

Conceptual image of Vitalik Buterin analyzing the crossroads between speculative and practical prediction market incentives.

Vitalik Buterin’s Important Warning: Prediction Market Incentives Are Misaligned with Real Financial Needs

February 14, 2026 Jackson Miller

Global, May 2025: In a detailed critique that has resonated across the cryptocurrency and traditional finance sectors, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has raised fundamental questions about the trajectory of prediction markets. While these platforms have seen explosive growth in liquidity and user adoption, Buterin contends their current incentives may be encouraging short-term speculation at the […]

Ethereum co-founder warns prediction markets are drifting into short-term betting, not hedging.

Prediction Markets Warning: Ethereum Co-Founder Decries ‘Corposlop’ Drift

February 14, 2026 Jackson Miller

Global, May 2025: A foundational voice in the blockchain ecosystem has issued a stark critique of a core decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has publicly warned that prediction markets—platforms designed to forecast real-world events—are sliding into what he terms “corposlop.” This critique highlights a significant drift from their original purpose as […]