Technical and on-chain indicators are flashing signals that XRP may be forming a price bottom. The altcoin has held a critical support zone between $1.25 and $1.30 since early February 2026, sparking analysis that the eight-month downtrend could be nearing exhaustion. Data from TradingView and Glassnode reveals oversold conditions and on-chain metrics that have historically preceded significant rallies.
XRP Price Finds Footing at Key Support
XRP has been under pressure for months. But the decline appears to have met a wall of buyer interest. According to TradingView data, the XRP/USD pair has defended the $1.25-$1.30 zone multiple times since February 6, 2026. This level now represents a clear line in the sand for traders.
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“$XRP is sustaining the major support zone between $1.30-$1.25 levels since early Feb’26,” trader ChiefraT noted in a social media post on Friday, April 10, 2026. “If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.” The importance of this zone is reinforced by cost basis distribution data from Glassnode, which shows nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price, creating a dense cluster of investor interest.
Oversold Conditions Signal Potential Reversal
Beyond simple price action, momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be overdone. The relative strength index (RSI) for the XRP/BTC trading pair recently hit 24. This is the most oversold reading since October 2025. Historically, such extreme lows in the daily RSI have marked significant bottoms for the ratio.
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Previous instances led to XRP breakouts against Bitcoin ranging from 65% to 345%. The chart also shows the XRP/BTC pair trading within a long consolidation range that has acted as a launching pad before. The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin in this zone was June 2025. That event marked the start of a 61% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio and a 92% rally in the XRP/USD price to a multi-year high of $3.66.
On-Chain Metrics Point to Undervaluation
On-chain data provides a complementary bullish narrative. XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score is hovering near zero. This level has historically aligned with accumulation zones and market bottoms. It indicates most holders are near their breakeven point, which typically reduces sell pressure and signals downside exhaustion.
Similar patterns appeared in 2021, 2022, and 2024 before major rallies. The last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to comparable levels in late 2024, it coincided with a macro market bottom at $0.30. That low preceded a multi-month rally where XRP/USD rose 500% to above $3.
Furthermore, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band—a level that has marked cycle bottoms—currently sits at $1.14. This coincides with the 15-month low reached on February 6, 2026. Industry watchers note that these combined metrics suggest XRP is undervalued. The implication is that the ongoing recovery could continue, with potential targets near $1.70 or higher.
The Bull and Bear Case for XRP
The path forward hinges on a few clear levels. The bullish scenario requires XRP/USD to hold above the $1.25-$1.30 support. A sustained bounce from here could see the price challenge the $1.45 resistance, then aim for the $1.61 range high. Regaining that level would signal bulls have retaken control.
However, the bearish case remains valid. The next critical support below the current zone is the $1.15 demand area, where the 200-week simple moving average resides. A decisive break below $1.25 could trigger a swift move down to test this level.
If $1.15 fails, analysts warn of a potential “free-fall” toward the measured target of a bearish chart pattern near $0.80. That would represent a drop of roughly 41% from current prices. This risk highlights the binary nature of the current setup.
Market Context and Investor Sentiment
XRP’s struggle mirrors broader uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors continue to influence trader behavior. Yet, the altcoin’s specific on-chain and technical setup has drawn focused attention.
The concentration of coins acquired around $1.30 creates a psychological and financial support floor. What this means for investors is that a large cohort of holders would face losses if the price falls further, which may incentivize them to defend the level or accumulate more. This dynamic can sometimes create a self-fulfilling prophecy of support.
Data from Glassnode shows similar accumulation patterns preceded the major rallies in late 2024 and 2025. This suggests that smart money or long-term holders might be active at current prices. But sentiment remains cautious. The prolonged downtrend has eroded confidence, requiring a clear technical breakout to shift the narrative.
Conclusion
XRP price action is at an inflection point. The altcoin is displaying multiple technical and on-chain signals that have marked historical bottoms. Holding the $1.25-$1.30 support zone is the immediate prerequisite for any sustained recovery. While the oversold conditions and on-chain metrics are encouraging, the market will need to see a decisive move above key resistance to confirm a true trend reversal. For now, traders are watching to see if this key support level holds.
FAQs
Q1: What is the key support level for XRP?
The critical support zone is between $1.25 and $1.30. XRP has defended this area multiple times since early February 2026, and a break below could lead to further declines.
Q2: What does an oversold RSI mean for XRP?
The RSI for the XRP/BTC pair hitting 24 suggests selling pressure may be exhausted. Historically, such extreme oversold readings have preceded significant price rallies for XRP against Bitcoin.
Q3: What is the MVRV Z-score indicating?
XRP’s MVRV Z-score near zero suggests the asset may be undervalued and in an accumulation zone. This metric shows most holders are near breakeven, which can reduce sell pressure.
Q4: What is the price target if support holds?
If the $1.25-$1.30 support holds, analysts see a potential short-term bounce toward $1.45. A stronger recovery could target the $1.61 range high and, eventually, levels near $1.70.
Q5: What is the main risk for XRP right now?
The primary risk is a breakdown below the $1.25 support. If that happens, the next support is at $1.15, with a breach there potentially opening the door to a decline toward $0.80.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
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