XRP Price Analysis: Critical $1.65 Resistance Test Could Trigger a Pivotal Move
Global, May 2025: The XRP price finds itself at a significant technical crossroads, testing a crucial resistance level near $1.65. This pivotal moment follows a fading relief rally and occurs within a broader bearish market structure that continues to dictate price action. Analysts note that a failure to sustain momentum above this level could validate a bearish Elliott Wave count, potentially leading to a final corrective decline toward major support zones near $1.09 and, more critically, $0.90. While momentum indicators like the MACD show a deceleration in selling pressure, key tools such as the Ichimoku Cloud have yet to signal a confirmed trend reversal, leaving the digital asset in a state of heightened uncertainty.
XRP Price Analysis: The Battle at $1.65
The $1.65 price point has emerged as a formidable barrier for XRP, representing more than just a psychological round number. Technical analysts identify this level as a confluence of resistance stemming from previous support-turned-resistance and a key Fibonacci retracement level from the asset’s recent decline. The ongoing test follows what market technicians describe as a “Wave 4” relief rally within a larger corrective pattern. This rally, which provided temporary respite for holders, has lost steam, allowing the underlying bearish daily chart structure to reassert control. The market’s inability to decisively break and hold above $1.65 suggests that sellers remain active at higher prices, a classic characteristic of a downtrend. Historical data shows that similar failed tests at major resistance levels have often preceded significant moves lower, as trapped buyers exit positions and new short sellers enter the market.
Technical Indicators and Bearish Structure
A closer examination of key technical indicators provides a nuanced view of the current market forces. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while still in negative territory, shows a slowing momentum of decline. This divergence can sometimes precede a trend change, but it is not a reversal signal on its own. The Ichimoku Cloud, a comprehensive indicator that shows support/resistance, momentum, and trend direction, paints a clearer bearish picture. XRP price remains below the Cloud (Kumo), which acts as a major resistance zone, and the lagging span (Chikou Span) is below the price action of 26 periods ago—a classic bearish configuration.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price below the Cloud confirms the primary trend as bearish. A breakout above the Cloud is needed for a trend reversal signal.
- MACD: The slowing sell pressure, indicated by a rising MACD histogram, suggests bearish momentum is waning, but the signal line remains below zero.
- Volume: Trading volume during the rally to $1.65 has been unremarkable, lacking the conviction typically associated with a sustainable breakout.
This technical setup underscores a market lacking strong bullish conviction. The bearish structure on the daily chart implies that any rally is currently treated as a counter-trend move within a larger downward trajectory until proven otherwise.
Understanding Elliott Wave Theory in Context
The reference to “Wave 4” relief fading is rooted in Elliott Wave Theory, a form of technical analysis that observes recurring long-term price patterns. In a bearish corrective pattern (often labeled A-B-C), Wave 4 represents a counter-trend bounce within a five-wave decline. The fading of this wave suggests the potential inception of a final “Wave 5” down, which would target lower price levels to complete the correction. It is crucial to understand that wave analysis is interpretive; not all analysts agree on the exact count. However, the principle that failed rallies at key resistance often lead to tests of lower support is a widely accepted market axiom. The 2021-2022 market cycle provided numerous examples across the crypto sector where similar technical setups played out, leading to extended consolidation or further declines.
Potential Support Zones: $1.09 and $0.90
Should the price fail to hold above $1.65, analysts have identified two critical support zones. The first major area sits near $1.09. This level is significant as it represents a prior consolidation zone from late 2023 and aligns with a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of XRP’s rally from its 2023 lows. Markets often find temporary support at such confluent levels. The second and more profound support zone resides near $0.90. This area is historically significant, marking a long-term support level that held during multiple tests in 2021 and 2023. A breach below $0.90 would represent a breakdown of a multi-year support structure, potentially opening the door to much lower prices and signaling a fundamental shift in market sentiment toward the asset.
| Support Level | Technical Significance | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|
| $1.09 | 0.618 Fibonacci retracement; previous consolidation zone | Acted as resistance in Q4 2023 before breaking higher |
| $0.90 | Multi-year horizontal support | Key level held during major sell-offs in 2021 and 2023 |
The depth of these potential declines highlights the high-stakes nature of the current resistance test. For long-term investors, the $0.90 zone is often viewed as a potential accumulation area, given its historical importance. However, a decisive break below it would invalidate that thesis and force a re-evaluation of the asset’s long-term price floor.
Broader Market Context and Ripple’s Ecosystem
XRP’s price action does not occur in a vacuum. It is influenced by broader cryptocurrency market trends, Bitcoin’s dominance, and regulatory developments specific to Ripple Labs. The ongoing legal proceedings between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), while having reached critical settlements on some fronts, continue to cast a long shadow over the asset’s regulatory clarity in certain jurisdictions. Furthermore, adoption metrics for Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service and the overall health of the XRP Ledger provide fundamental context. While technical analysis focuses on price charts, these real-world factors ultimately drive long-term value. Periods of technical indecision, like the present, often coincide with markets digesting such macro and fundamental news flows.
Conclusion
The XRP price stands at a critical technical juncture, with the battle at the $1.65 resistance level likely to determine its short-to-medium-term trajectory. The prevailing bearish daily structure, confirmed by tools like the Ichimoku Cloud, suggests the path of least resistance remains downward unless a decisive breakout occurs. While slowing momentum on the MACD offers a glimmer of hope for bulls, it is insufficient to confirm a reversal. The key risk is a rejection from current levels, which could trigger a final leg down toward the $1.09 and $0.90 support zones. Market participants should monitor volume on any approach to $1.65—sustained, high-volume buying is required to overcome the entrenched resistance. As always in volatile cryptocurrency markets, this analysis highlights potential scenarios based on current technicals, not certain predictions, and underscores the importance of robust risk management.
FAQs
Q1: What does “Wave 4 relief fading” mean in the XRP price analysis?
It refers to a concept from Elliott Wave Theory suggesting a counter-trend bounce within a larger downward move is losing momentum. This implies the larger bearish trend may be resuming, potentially leading to a final “Wave 5” decline.
Q2: Why is the $1.65 level so important for XRP right now?
The $1.65 level represents a strong technical resistance zone created by previous price action and Fibonacci levels. A failure to break and hold above it confirms seller dominance and can trigger increased selling pressure as traders exit positions.
Q3: How reliable are the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD indicators?
No indicator is 100% reliable. The Ichimoku Cloud is respected for defining trend direction and key support/resistance areas. The MACD is useful for gauging momentum. They are best used in conjunction with other analysis, not in isolation.
Q4: What would constitute a confirmed bullish trend reversal for XRP?
A confirmed reversal would typically require a decisive daily close above the Ichimoku Cloud (currently above $1.65) accompanied by strong volume, and for the MACD signal line to cross above zero on the daily chart.
Q5: Are the $1.09 and $0.90 levels guaranteed to act as support?
No price level offers guaranteed support. These zones are identified based on historical price reactions and technical calculations. They are areas where buying interest may increase, but they can be broken if selling pressure is overwhelming.
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