NEW YORK, January 12, 2026 – Global investment manager VanEck has identified the first quarter of 2026 as a potential inflection point for risk assets, marking what analysts describe as the return of predictable policy environments after years of market volatility. According to their latest analysis, clearer fiscal signals and more stable monetary policy could create favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence investments, gold, and private credit. This forecast arrives as investors globally reposition portfolios following the turbulent market corrections of late 2025.
VanEck’s 2026 Turning Point Analysis
VanEck’s research team published detailed observations this week highlighting a significant shift in market fundamentals. The firm notes that government spending plans have become more defined across major economies. Consequently, policy surprises have diminished substantially compared to previous years. Additionally, interest rate expectations have stabilized following the Federal Reserve’s communicated path toward normalization. These combined factors provide investors with unprecedented visibility for strategic allocation decisions.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, explained the changing landscape in a recent commentary. “Markets now operate with a clarity absent since before the pandemic era,” Sigel stated. “The reduction in policy uncertainty allows for more confident pricing of risk across asset classes.” This environment contrasts sharply with the frequent central bank pivots and fiscal surprises that characterized 2023 through 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent characterization of current rates as “normal” further reinforces this stability narrative.
The Mechanics of Policy Clarity
Policy clarity manifests through several measurable channels. First, legislative gridlock has decreased in key economies, enabling more predictable budget trajectories. Second, central bank communication has become more consistent, with forward guidance regaining credibility. Third, geopolitical tensions, while present, have entered more stable phases of managed competition rather than acute crisis. These developments collectively reduce the risk premium that investors demanded during more uncertain periods.
Artificial Intelligence Assets After the 2025 Reset
VanEck’s analysis identifies artificial intelligence investments as particularly poised to benefit from the emerging environment. The sector experienced a significant valuation correction in the latter half of 2025, creating what analysts describe as “more attractive entry points for medium-term investors.” This pullback followed excessive speculation in early 2025 that drove many AI-related stocks to unsustainable valuations. The subsequent correction has restored more traditional risk-reward metrics to the sector.
Interest has notably intensified around AI infrastructure components, especially energy solutions required to power data centers. Nuclear power investments have gained particular attention as a critical enabling technology. VanEck suggests this infrastructure demand is reshaping risk dynamics within the AI ecosystem. Therefore, selective exposure to companies with tangible infrastructure assets may offer better prospects than broad-based thematic investing.
| Theme | Rationale | Risk Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| AI & Infrastructure | Post-correction valuations, infrastructure demand | Medium (selective exposure favored) |
| Private Credit | Elevated yields, priced-in credit risk | Medium-Low |
| Gold | Central bank demand, de-dollarization trend | Low |
| India Growth | Structural reforms, demographic advantage | Medium-Long term |
| Cryptocurrency | Cycle adjustment, institutional adoption | High (near-term volatility) |
Bitcoin’s Evolving Market Cycle Dynamics
VanEck’s cryptocurrency analysis presents a nuanced picture. The firm observes that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, historically tied to halving events, showed signs of breaking down in 2025. This development makes short-term price predictions less reliable using historical patterns alone. Analysts anticipate “choppier price action over the next three to six months” as markets digest this structural change. However, the long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish based on adoption metrics.
David Schassler, VanEck’s Portfolio Manager for Digital Assets, highlighted Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from traditional assets. “Following the major deleveraging event in October 2025,” Schassler noted, “Bitcoin has traded with greater independence from equities and gold.” This decoupling suggests the asset is maturing beyond its earlier correlation patterns. External analysts like Justin d’Anethan of Arctic Digital corroborate this view, noting that current gains are forming in a “low-leverage environment” with less speculative excess.
Long-Term Bitcoin Projections
Despite near-term volatility expectations, VanEck maintains ambitious long-term projections. Previous research from the firm suggests Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 under a scenario where it captures meaningful shares of global trade settlements and central bank reserves. This projection assumes continued adoption as a neutral reserve asset and settlement layer. The path toward this potential, however, will likely include significant volatility periods as regulatory frameworks evolve and market structures mature.
Gold’s Resurgent Role and India’s Structural Opportunity
Beyond digital assets, VanEck identifies two additional high-conviction themes. Gold continues to strengthen its position as a reserve asset, supported by sustained central bank purchasing. This demand reflects a gradual, multi-year trend toward diversification away from exclusive U.S. dollar reliance. While technical indicators occasionally suggest overextension, price pullbacks consistently attract new buyers seeking inflation protection and geopolitical hedge.
India represents what VanEck terms a “high-conviction, long-term opportunity.” The assessment cites multiple supporting factors:
- Structural reforms improving business environment and infrastructure
- Favorable demographics with a growing, youthful workforce
- Steady economic growth outpacing many emerging markets
- Digital transformation creating new investment sectors
These elements combine to position India uniquely among major economies for sustained expansion through the late 2020s and beyond.
Private Credit’s Attractive Yield Profile
The private credit sector has regained investor attention following a difficult 2025 marked by default concerns and liquidity challenges. VanEck analysts observe that while yields remain elevated, much of the sector’s credit risk is now reflected in valuations. This repricing creates what the firm views as a more attractive entry point than existed twelve months prior. Business development companies (BDCs) receive particular mention as vehicles offering exposure to this recalibrated risk-reward balance.
The improved outlook stems partly from clearer regulatory treatment and more standardized documentation across private lending markets. Additionally, the stabilization of interest rates reduces refinancing uncertainty for borrowers. Together, these factors allow for more accurate cash flow modeling and default probability assessments.
Conclusion
VanEck’s comprehensive analysis points toward Q1 2026 as a potential turning point for risk assets across multiple categories. The return of policy clarity after years of uncertainty creates conditions conducive to strategic portfolio positioning. While near-term volatility persists, especially in cryptocurrency markets, the broader environment appears supportive for assets benefiting from AI infrastructure, private credit yields, gold’s reserve status, India’s growth, and long-term digital asset adoption. Investors should monitor fiscal developments and central bank communications closely as 2026 progresses, as these factors will determine whether the anticipated turning point materializes as forecasted.
FAQs
Q1: What does VanEck mean by “policy clarity”?
Policy clarity refers to more predictable government spending plans, fewer unexpected regulatory changes, and steadier interest rate expectations from central banks. This reduces uncertainty for investors pricing risk.
Q2: Why does VanEck believe AI assets are attractive now?
The sector experienced significant valuation corrections in late 2025, creating better entry points. Infrastructure demand, particularly for energy solutions like nuclear power, is creating new investment opportunities within the AI ecosystem.
Q3: How has Bitcoin’s market cycle changed according to VanEck?
The traditional four-year cycle tied to halving events showed signs of breaking down in 2025, making short-term predictions less reliable. Bitcoin has also recently decoupled from its previous correlations with equities and gold.
Q4: What supports gold’s ongoing strength in VanEck’s view?
Sustained central bank purchasing and a gradual trend toward reducing exclusive reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves are key drivers. Price pullbacks continue to attract buyers seeking inflation protection.
Q5: Why is India highlighted as a special opportunity?
Structural economic reforms, favorable demographics with a growing workforce, steady growth outpacing peers, and digital transformation initiatives combine to create long-term growth potential distinct from other emerging markets.
