March 14, 2026 — Circle’s USDC stablecoin has surpassed Tether’s USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019, according to a new analysis from Japanese investment bank Mizuho. The shift represents a significant change in stablecoin usage patterns, with analysts emphasizing transaction volume as a key indicator of which digital dollar will dominate everyday payments.
Volume Reversal After Seven Years
Mizuho reported in a research note that USDC recorded approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date, compared to $1.3 trillion for USDT. This gives USDC a 64% market share in transaction volume, reversing a trend where USDT consistently led from 2019 through 2025.
“The data shows USDC vs. USDT volumes at 64% market share,” Mizuho stated. The investment bank subsequently raised its price target for Circle stock from $100 to $120 following this analysis. Circle, which became a public company on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025, saw its stock price remain largely unchanged after the report’s release.
Despite the volume shift, Tether’s stablecoin maintains its position as the largest by market capitalization. USDT’s market cap stands at about $184 billion, significantly higher than USDC’s $79 billion valuation.
Transaction Volume Versus Market Cap
Mizuho analysts highlighted why transaction volume data carries particular importance in the stablecoin competition. According to their research, the stablecoin that ultimately prevails will be the one people use for daily transactions, not merely the one with the largest stored value.
This distinction between transaction velocity and stored value reflects different use cases within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Market capitalization measures the total value locked in a stablecoin, while transaction volume indicates how frequently that stablecoin moves through the financial system.
Industry observers note that higher transaction volume typically suggests greater utility for payments, remittances, and decentralized finance applications. Lower volume relative to market cap might indicate more use for storage or as a trading pair on exchanges.
Regulatory Landscape Remains Uncertain
The volume shift occurs amid ongoing uncertainty in Washington regarding comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House of Representatives, remains stalled in the Senate.
Debates continue over several contentious issues including stablecoin yield generation, ethics provisions, and regulations surrounding tokenized equities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated recently that the chamber would prioritize voting requirements legislation over digital asset market structure bills.
This regulatory delay creates an ambiguous environment for stablecoin issuers and users alike. Without clear federal guidelines, states have developed varying approaches to stablecoin regulation, creating a patchwork of compliance requirements.
Market Implications and Future Outlook
The Mizuho report suggests changing dynamics in the stablecoin sector that could influence both investor sentiment and regulatory discussions. While USDT continues to dominate in total value, USDC’s growing transaction volume indicates expanding adoption for actual economic activity.
Market participants will monitor whether this volume trend continues through the remainder of the year. The relationship between transaction volume and eventual market capitalization shifts remains a subject of analysis within financial institutions.
For further information on stablecoin regulations, readers can review official statements from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and legislative updates from Congress.gov. Circle provides regular transparency reports about USDC reserves through its official website.
As the stablecoin market evolves, the competition between transaction volume and market capitalization will likely remain a central focus for analysts, regulators, and users determining which digital dollars power the future of digital finance.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
