MIAMI, April 4, 2026—Demand for shares in artificial intelligence firm Anthropic has reached a fever pitch in private markets, creating a seller’s drought. But a colossal shift is coming. SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing this week threatens to redirect billions in investor capital, potentially cooling the heat on AI’s hottest names.
The Secondary Market’s AI Obsession
Glen Anderson has a unique view of the action. As president of Rainmaker Securities, an investment bank specializing in private securities, he facilitates trades in about 1,000 private company stocks. According to Anderson, the current market narrative revolves around three giants: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” Anderson told TechCrunch. “There’s just no sellers.”
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This scarcity confirms a trend reported by Bloomberg. Data from that report showed buyers had $2 billion ready to deploy into Anthropic. Meanwhile, roughly $600 million in OpenAI shares remained unsold. Anderson sees a similar dynamic. The implication is clear: investor enthusiasm has bifurcated, even within the elite tier of AI companies.
Anthropic’s Unexpected Catalyst
What explains Anthropic’s surge? Anderson points to an unlikely source: its public clash with the U.S. Department of Defense. Initially seen as a risk, the standoff became a branding victory. “The app got more popular, people rallied around the company as kind of a hero, taking on big government,” Anderson said. “I think it amplified the story and made it even more differentiated from OpenAI.”
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This distinction matters. For years, the prevailing logic was to bet on the entire AI sector. Now, investors are making sharper distinctions. Anderson notes many still want exposure to both leading AI firms, but momentum in the secondary market has visibly shifted toward Anthropic.
OpenAI’s Controlled Market
This doesn’t mean OpenAI has collapsed. Anderson pushes back on a binary reading. “I wouldn’t say it’s a one-or-the-other conversation,” he said. But he acknowledged the excitement isn’t comparable. “It’s not nearly as vibrant a market as Anthropic right now.”
On valuation, Anderson broadly confirmed Bloomberg’s reporting. OpenAI shares are trading as if the company were valued around $765 billion. That’s a notable discount to its latest primary-round valuation of $852 billion. OpenAI has moved to control its secondary market. A company spokesperson warned investors to be “extremely cautious” of unauthorized brokers, noting the company established fee-free channels through major banks.
This move appears telling. According to Bloomberg, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are offering OpenAI shares to wealthy clients without charging carry fees. For Anthropic exposure, however, Goldman is charging its standard fee—often 15% to 20% of profits. The fee structure signals where banks see sustained, premium demand.
SpaceX: The Unshakable Performer
Amid this AI drama, SpaceX operates in a different league. Anderson describes it as one of the few major private companies that avoided the brutal correction of 2022-2024. During that period, many private company shares fell 60% to 70% from their peaks. SpaceX’s trajectory has “been pretty much consistently up and to the right,” Anderson said.
He credits disciplined management. “A lot of companies will fall for the temptation to maximize the price of their stock in every round,” Anderson noted. “The problem is that that doesn’t leave any room for error.” SpaceX, he argues, played it conservatively by “not getting too greedy.” The payoff for early investors is staggering. A $1 billion investment by Google and Fidelity in 2015 valued SpaceX at roughly $12 billion. Today, with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, that stake has grown more than 100-fold.
The IPO Liquidity Squeeze
SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing changes everything. Reports suggest Elon Musk aims to raise $50 billion to $75 billion, possibly in June. If successful, it would be one of the largest market debuts in history, rivaled only by Saudi Aramco’s $1.7 trillion listing in 2019.
The filing has already altered secondary market dynamics. “Today, I saw a flood of SpaceX investors coming to me saying, ‘Can you give me SpaceX?'” Anderson said. “It’s been a very active buy side.” But supply is vanishing. As an IPO nears, shareholders hold tight, awaiting the public listing.
This creates a major problem for OpenAI and Anthropic. Both are reportedly exploring their own public offerings this year. SpaceX, by filing first, will test the market’s appetite on a monumental scale. Anderson was direct about the consequence. “SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity,” he stated. “There’s only so much money out there allocated to IPOs.”
The First-Mover Disadvantage
The company that goes public first sets the tone. It also consumes available capital. Those who follow face heightened scrutiny and potentially smaller checks. This dynamic plays out in every industry. AI companies are not immune, despite their current allure. Time your IPO too early, and you test market receptivity. Wait too long, and the biggest checks may already be written to your competitor.
For Anthropic, riding a wave of insatiable private demand, the coming months present a strategic puzzle. Its moment in the private sun is undeniable. But SpaceX’s shadow is long, and the public markets have finite appetite. The party in the private markets might be interrupted by a historic launch pad next door.
Conclusion
The private market shows intense, specific demand for Anthropic, setting it apart from rival OpenAI. Yet SpaceX’s imminent IPO presents a stark reality check. The rocket company’s disciplined growth and trillion-dollar valuation will commandeer investor attention and capital. For AI’s leading firms, the path to the public markets just got more crowded. The final test won’t be private hype, but the ability to secure public funds after SpaceX sets the benchmark.
FAQs
Q1: What is a secondary market for private company shares?
A secondary market is where existing shares of a private company are bought and sold between investors, rather than being sold by the company itself. This provides liquidity to early employees and investors before an IPO.
Q2: Why is Anthropic stock so hard to buy right now?
According to market brokers like Glen Anderson of Rainmaker Securities, there are far more buyers than sellers. High demand and limited supply have created a seller’s market, making shares scarce.
Q3: How does SpaceX’s IPO affect Anthropic and OpenAI?
A massive IPO like SpaceX’s planned $50-$75 billion offering absorbs a huge amount of available investment capital. This can leave less money in the market for subsequent large IPOs, potentially forcing later companies to accept lower valuations or raise less capital.
Q4: What is the difference between primary and secondary valuation?
A primary valuation is set when a company sells new shares directly to investors, injecting fresh capital into the business. A secondary valuation reflects the price at which existing shares trade between third parties, which can be higher or lower than the primary price based on market sentiment.
Q5: Why did Anthropic’s dispute with the Department of Defense help its popularity?
Market observers suggest the public standoff cast the company in a principled, independent light, differentiating it from competitors and resonating with certain users and investors, which amplified demand for its stock.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
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