Novo Nordisk investors got a brutal wake-up call this week as shares plummeted over 20% – the company’s worst single-day drop in a decade. The Danish pharmaceutical giant slashed its Wegovy sales forecast amid intensifying competition from Eli Lilly’s superior Zepbound. Here’s what this seismic shift means for the $90 billion obesity drug market.
Why Did Novo Nordisk Stock Crash?
The bloodbath began when Novo Nordisk revised its 2025 Wegovy sales growth projection from 21% to just 14%. This triggered a panic sell-off that erased $45 billion in market value. Three critical factors fueled the plunge:
- Eli Lilly’s Zepbound demonstrates 20.2% average weight loss vs Wegovy’s 13.7%
- FDA-approved sleep apnea treatment gives Zepbound additional market advantage
- Ongoing supply chain issues led to compounded alternatives cannibalizing Wegovy sales
GLP-1 Market Share Battle Heats Up
| Metric | Novo Nordisk | Eli Lilly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Market Share | 62% | 28% |
| Q1 Weight Loss Efficacy | 13.7% | 20.2% |
| Waist Reduction | 13 cm | 18.4 cm |
| Therapeutic Approvals | 1 | 2 |
Novo Nordisk’s Fight Back Strategy
The company pins its hopes on two pipeline drugs:
- CagriSema (2026 launch) – 13.7% weight loss but high 72.5% side effect rate
- Amycretin – Early data shows 24.3% weight loss without Zepbound’s plateau effect
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has Novo Nordisk stock dropped?
NVO shares fell over 20% in pre-market trading and are down 27.6% over the past week, hitting a yearly low of $50 compared to its 52-week average of $92.69.
What gives Eli Lilly’s Zepbound an advantage?
Zepbound shows superior efficacy (20.2% vs 13.7% weight loss), additional FDA approval for sleep apnea treatment, and appears to avoid the supply chain issues that plagued Wegovy.
When will Novo Nordisk release new drugs?
The company plans to file for CagriSema approval in 2026, while Amycretin remains in earlier development stages with promising preliminary results.
Should investors buy the dip?
Analysts remain divided – while the average price target sits at $84 (73% above current levels), the Q2 earnings report on August 6th could provide clearer direction.
