Bitcoin’s price is holding steady near $118,200 as traders brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. With a 97.5% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged, all eyes are on key Bitcoin resistance and support levels that could determine the next major move.
Bitcoin Price Stuck in Tight Range Ahead of FOMC Decision
As the FOMC meeting approaches, Bitcoin continues trading in a narrow range between $112,000 support and $120,000 resistance. Market analysts highlight these critical Bitcoin price levels:
- Resistance: $120,000 (2 standard deviations above STH realized price)
- Support: $112,000 (immediate support zone)
- Secondary Support: $105,400 (STH cost basis)
- Critical Psychological Level: $93,000 (yearly open)
Why the FOMC Decision Could Spark Bitcoin Volatility
While the rate decision itself appears priced in, traders are watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for clues about future policy. Historical patterns show Bitcoin often experiences significant moves after FOMC meetings:
| Scenario | Potential Bitcoin Reaction |
|---|---|
| Dovish tone from Powell | Break above $120,000, rally toward $141,000 |
| Hawkish surprises | Test of $112,000 support, possible drop to $105,400 |
| Neutral stance | Continued rangebound trading |
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Glassnode data reveals the $120,000 level aligns with two standard deviations above the short-term holder realized price. A breakout here with strong volume could trigger a parabolic move. Conversely, failure to hold $112,000 may lead to:
- Initial drop to $105,400 support
- Potential test of $93,000 yearly open
- Short-term holder capitulation
Trader Sentiment and Market Positioning Before FOMC
Analysts observe cautious optimism in derivatives markets. Key observations include:
- Liquidity clusters between $119,800-$121,000 may limit upside
- Fear-driven sell-offs often precede rebounds
- Institutional buyers waiting for clear breakout signals
What Comes Next for Bitcoin After FOMC?
The coming days will test Bitcoin’s resilience at key levels. While August has historically been bullish for crypto, traders should prepare for potential volatility from:
- Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report
- Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty
- Potential shifts in risk appetite
Power Word: Pivotal – “The next 48 hours could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the FOMC decision?
The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, with Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Why is $120,000 important for Bitcoin?
This level represents two standard deviations above the short-term holder realized price, making it a significant resistance point that could trigger algorithmic buying if broken.
What happens if Bitcoin breaks $120,000?
A confirmed breakout above $120,000 with strong volume could propel Bitcoin toward $141,000, according to Glassnode analysis.
How might Powell’s comments affect Bitcoin?
Dovish language about future rate cuts could boost Bitcoin, while hawkish remarks about persistent inflation might trigger selling pressure.
What’s the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?
A breakdown below $112,000 could lead to a test of $105,400 support, with $93,000 becoming critical if selling accelerates.
Should I buy Bitcoin before or after FOMC?
Many analysts suggest waiting for post-FOMC price action confirmation, as initial volatility often creates better entry points.
